Trend analysis and prediction of injury burden among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021

JIN Xue; CAO Yangguang; LI Baozhu

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025089

Volume 46 Issue 3

Mar. 2025

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JIN Xue, CAO Yangguang, LI Baozhu. Trend analysis and prediction of injury burden among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2025, 46(3): 406-411. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025089

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JIN Xue, CAO Yangguang, LI Baozhu. Trend analysis and prediction of injury burden among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2025, 46(3): 406-411. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025089

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Trend analysis and prediction of injury burden among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025089

School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University/Center for Big Data and Population Health of IHM, Hefei (230032), Anhui Province, China

Received Date: 2025-01-07
Rev Recd Date: 2025-02-09

Available Online: 2025-04-03

Publish Date: 2025-03-25

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the prevalence and future trend of change of the disease burden of injuries in Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021, so as to provide reference for injury prevention and control in this population. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021), the trend of change in the disease burden of injuries in children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021 was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression model. The Bayesian age period cohort model (BAPC) was used to predict the disease burden of injuries among children and adolescents in China from 2022 to 2031. Results From 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate, and standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of injuries among children and adolescents in China showed an overall downward trend (AAPC=-1.14%, -0.76%, -5.41%, -5.03%, P < 0.05). For different genders, the standardized incidence rate (7 106.00/100 000, 5 388.00/100 000), standardized mortality rate (92.00/100 000, 19.00/100 000), and standardized DALYs rate (7 834.00/100 000, 1 673.00/100 000) of injuries in boys were higher than the rate of injuries in girls in 1990 and 2021 (5 188.00/100 000, 3 874.00/100 000; 61.00/100 000, 10.00/100 000; 5 398.00/100 000, 945.00/100 000). Compared with Asia and globally, China had the fastest decline in the standardized mortality rate (AAPC=-5.41) and the slowest decline in the standardized prevalence rate (AAPC=-0.76) among children and adolescents. The results of the Joinpoint burden trend analysis demonstrated that the standardized incidence rate of injuries showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2021, and the standardized prevalence rate of injuries showed an increasing trend from 2006 to 2021. Among the different age groups, the disease burden of injuries was highest in the 15-19-year-old group in 2021. For different types of injuries, the standardized incidence rate, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALYs rate of unintentional injury were higher than those of transport injury, and self-harm and interpersonal violence from 1990 to 2021. The BAPC prediction model showed that the standardized incidence rate (4 833.05/100 000-5 313.70/100 000) and standardized prevalence rate (5 433.90/100 000-5 821.88/100 000) of injury showed an increasing trend, and the standardized mortality rate (13.69/100 000-5.52/100 000) and the standardized DALYs rate (1 226.37/100 000-510.14/100 000) showed a decreasing trend during 2022-2031. The analysis of influencing factors found that children and adolescents who drank alcohol were at high risk of injury burden. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the injury burden of children and adolescents in China generally showed a downward trend. The standardized incidence rate and standardized prevalence rate of injuries are predicted to increase from 2022 to 2031. More targeted and individualized intervention measures should be developed to reduce the injury burden in children and adolescents.
- Wounds and injuries,
- Cost of illness,
- Regression analysis,
- Child,
- Adolescent

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References(19)

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