随机森林模型联合LASSO回归分析高中生攻击性行为影响因素

李亚昕; 胡旗碧; 汪星宇; 刘欣; 常红娟

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025292

随机森林模型联合LASSO回归分析高中生攻击性行为影响因素

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025292

武汉科技大学医学院，湖北 430000

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 81803252

湖北省教育厅重点项目 24D083

详细信息

作者简介:
李亚昕(2000-)，男，山西长治人，在读硕士，主要研究方向为儿童青少年卫生学

通讯作者:
常红娟，E-mail: changhj0812@126.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 C913.5 G444
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-05-08
- 修回日期: 2025-08-02
- 刊出日期: 2025-10-25

Random forest model combined with LASSO regression to analyze the influencing factors of aggressive behavior among high school students

School of Medicine, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430000, Hubei Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析高中生攻击性行为的影响因素，对相关变量进行重要性排序并可视化呈现，为该行为的干预措施制定提供新的参考依据。方法 2024年12月采用方便抽样法在武汉市5所高中选取5 330名高中生进行线上问卷调查，包括Buss-Perry攻击性量表、交往焦虑量表、情绪管理量表、父母和同伴依恋量表及自编一般情况调查表。采用LASSO回归筛选变量后进行Logistic多因素回归分析，并利用随机森林模型进行变量重要性排序与可视化。结果单因素分析与LASSO回归结果显示，性别、情绪管理能力、父母亲依恋质量、父母管教方式、父母教养方式是否一致、家庭人均月收入、学校风气、与同学关系、交往焦虑及成绩位置均为显著变量(P值均 < 0.01)。多因素Logistic回归结果显示，情绪管理能力(OR=0.38，95%CI=0.34~0.43)、性别(OR=0.83，95%CI=0.75~0.93)、母亲依恋质量(OR=0.89，95%CI=0.74~1.07)、父亲依恋质量(OR=0.76，95%CI=0.66~0.87)、交往焦虑(OR=1.58，95%CI=1.40~1.78)、父母教养方式是否一致(OR=1.40，95%CI=1.21~1.62)、学校风气(OR=1.50，95%CI=1.14~1.98)、成绩位置(中上游：OR=0.76，95%CI=0.61~0.93；中游：OR=0.70，95%CI=0.57~0.86)是高中生攻击性行为的影响因素(P值均 < 0.05)。随机森林结果显示情绪管理能力是影响高中生攻击性行为的最主要因素。结论情绪管理能力被确认为青少年攻击性行为的核心预测因子，可通过提升情绪管理能力来降低高中生攻击性行为发生率。
- 模型，统计学 /
- 回归分析 /
- 攻击 /
- 学生
Abstract: Objective To analyze the influencing factors of aggressive behaviors in high school students, rank the importance of relevant variables with visual presentation, so as to provide new references for developing intervention strategies. Methods In December 2024, a convenience sampling method was used to select 5 330 students from 5 high schools in Wuhan for an online questionnaire survey. The survey included the Buss-Perry Aggression Questionnaire (BPAQ), Interaction Anxiety Scale (IAS), Emotion Regulation Ability Scale, Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment (IPPA), and a self-designed general information questionnaire. Variables were screened using LASSO regression, followed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The Random Forest model was then employed to rank and visualize variable importance. Results Univariate analysis and LASSO regression results indicated that gender, emotion regulation capability, paternal attachment quality, maternal attachment quality, maternal parenting style, paternal parenting style, parenting consistency, monthly household income per capita, school climate, relationship with classmates, interaction anxiety, and academic ranking were all significant variables (all P < 0.01). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified the following as influencing factors of aggressive behaviors in high school students: emotional management ability (OR=0.38, 95%CI=0.34-0.43), gender (OR=0.83, 95%CI=0.75-0.93), mother attachment quality (OR=0.89, 95%CI=0.74-1.07), father attachment quality (OR=0.76, 95%CI=0.66-0.87), interaction anxiousness (OR=1.58, 95%CI=1.40-1.78), consistency of parenting styles of parents (OR=1.40, 95%CI=1.21-1.62), school atmosphere (OR=1.50, 95%CI=1.14-1.98), academic performance ranking (upper-middle: OR=0.76, 95%CI=0.61-0.93; middle: OR=0.70, 95%CI=0.57-0.86) were the influencing factors of aggressive behavior in high school students (all P < 0.05). The results of Random Forest showed that emotional management ability was the most important factor affecting aggressive behavior in high school students. Conclusion Emotion regulation capability is identified as the core predictor of adolescent aggressive behaviors, which can significantly reduce the incidence of aggressive behaviors through enhanced emotion management.
- Models, statistical /
- Regression analysis /
- Aggression /
- Students
注释:

1) 利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。

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图 1 高中生攻击性行为影响因素的重要性排序

Figure 1. Variable importance ranking for predictors of aggressive behaviors in high school students

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 不同组别高中生高攻击行为报告率比较

Table 1. Comparison of reporting rate of high aggressive behavior of different groups among high school students

组别	选项	人数	高攻击行为人数	χ²值	P值	组别	选项	人数	高攻击行为人数	χ²值	P值
交往焦虑	轻度	2 852	1 066(37.4)	135.43	< 0.01	父母教养方式	一致	4 212	1 754(41.6)	79.18	< 0.01
	重度	2 478	1 320(53.3)			是否一致	不一致	1 118	632(56.5)
情绪管理能力	较弱	2 616	1 538(58.8)	408.79	< 0.01	家庭人均	>5 000	664	330(49.7)	7.79	< 0.02
	较强	2 714	848(31.2)			月收入/元	1 000~5 000	3 387	1 501(44.3)
父亲依恋质量	较低	2 930	1 543(52.7)	164.10	< 0.01		< 1 000	1 279	555(43.4)
	较高	2 400	843(35.1)			居住地社会风气	较好	2 549	1 021(40.1)	62.91	< 0.01
母亲依恋质量	较低	2 632	1 436(54.6)	201.71	< 0.01		一般	2 559	1 225(47.9)
	较高	2 698	950(35.2)				较差	222	140(63.1)
同伴依恋质量	较低	2 695	1 328(49.3)	44.86	< 0.01	学校风气	较好	2 418	957(39.6)	69.84	< 0.01
	较高	2 635	1 058(40.2)				一般	2 583	1 228(47.5)
性别	男	2 483	1 149(46.3)	4.28	< 0.04		较差	329	201(61.1)
	女	2 847	1 237(43.4)			与老师关系	较好	2 703	1 075(39.8)	70.48	< 0.01
父亲管教方式	严格	4 026	1 678(41.7)	74.63	< 0.01		一般	2 520	1238(49.1)
	溺爱	392	205(52.3)				较差	107	73(68.2)
	漠不关心	219	123(56.2)			与同学关系	较好	3 771	1 578(41.8)	49.02	< 0.01
	粗暴	33	27(81.8)				一般	1 501	770(51.3)
	变化无常	660	353(53.5)				较差	58	38(65.5)
母亲管教方式	严格	3 800	1 582(41.6)	64.56	< 0.01	成绩位置	上游	588	276(46.9)	33.28	< 0.01
	溺爱	635	324(51.0)				中上游	1 541	644(41.8)
	漠不关心	111	67(60.4)				中游	1 827	769(42.1)
	粗暴	29	23(79.3)				中下游	1 037	516(49.8)
	变化无常	755	390(51.7)				下游	337	181(53.7)
父亲期望	读研/留学	1 286	573(44.6)	27.45	< 0.01	好朋友数量/个	0	63	39(61.9)	32.98	< 0.01
	上大学	3 588	1 571(43.8)				1	108	66(61.1)
	能有工作就行	373	183(49.1)				2~3	1 062	522(49.2)
	无所谓	83	59(71.1)				≥4	4 097	1 759(42.9)
母亲期望	读研/留学	1 296	563(43.4)	19.38	< 0.01	自我外表满意度	非常满意	708	276(39.0)	49.82	< 0.01
	上大学	3 530	1 560(44.2)				比较满意	1 904	801(42.1)
	能有工作就行	435	217(50.1)				一般	2 480	1 161(46.8)
	无所谓	69	46(66.7)				不满意	178	107(60.1)
							非常不满意	60	41(68.3)
注：()内数字为报告率/%。

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表 2 高中生攻击性行为影响因素的多因素Logistic回归分析(n=5 330)

Table 2. Multivariable Logistic analysis of aggressive behaviors in high school students(n=5 330)

自变量	选项	β值	标准误	Wald χ²值	P值	OR值(95%CI)
情绪管理能力	较强	-0.96	0.06	250.87	< 0.01	0.38(0.34~0.43)
性别	女	-0.19	0.06	9.54	< 0.01	0.83(0.74~0.93)
母亲依恋质量	较高	-0.39	0.07	31.11	< 0.01	0.89(0.74~1.07)
父亲依恋质量	较高	-0.28	0.07	16.26	< 0.01	0.76(0.66~0.87)
交往焦虑	较重	0.46	0.06	57.18	< 0.01	1.58(1.40~1.78)
父母教养方式是否一致	不一致	0.33	0.08	19.73	< 0.01	1.40(1.21~1.62)
学校风气	一般	0.07	0.07	0.95	0.33	1.07(0.93~1.23)
	较差	0.41	0.14	8.37	< 0.01	1.50(1.14~1.98)
成绩位置	中上游	-0.28	0.11	6.98	0.01	0.76(0.61~0.93)
	中游	-0.36	0.11	11.90	< 0.01	0.70(0.57~0.86)
	中下游	-0.21	0.12	3.27	0.07	0.81(0.65~1.02)
	下游	-0.30	0.15	3.81	0.05	0.74(0.55~1.00)

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