中国汉族7~18岁学生2000—2019年肺活量体重指数变化及未来趋势预测

周运; 张偲莹; 钟玉梅; 唐丽君; 李文革; 吴修龙

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025267

中国汉族7~18岁学生2000—2019年肺活量体重指数变化及未来趋势预测

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025267

周运^{1, 2},
张偲莹¹,
钟玉梅¹,
唐丽君¹,
李文革¹,
吴修龙^{1, 2, ,}

1.
安徽医科大学公共卫生学院儿少卫生与妇幼保健学系，合肥 230032
2.
出生人口健康教育部重点实验室

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 82204072

安徽高校自然科学研究项目 KJ2021A0229

详细信息

作者简介:
周运(1998-)，男，安徽合肥人，在读硕士，主要研究方向为呼吸系统疾病流行病学

通讯作者:
吴修龙，E-mail: wuxiulong6@126.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 R322.3⁺⁵ Q983^+.23
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-11-12
- 修回日期: 2025-02-21
- 网络出版日期: 2025-10-10
- 刊出日期: 2025-09-25

Change of forced vital capacity-to-weight index and future trend forecasting among Chinese Han students aged 7-18 during 2000-2019

ZHOU Yun^{1, 2},
ZHANG Siying¹,
ZHONG Yumei¹,
TANG Lijun¹,
LI Wenge¹,
WU Xiulong^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
Department of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, Anhui Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨2000—2019年中国7~18岁汉族学生肺活量体重指数(FWI)的长期趋势并预测未来10年变化，为制定针对性的健康干预措施和学校卫生政策提供科学依据。方法基于2000—2019年5次全国学生体质与健康调研数据，分别纳入216 500，233 565，215 267，214 256，212 632名7~18岁汉族学生。分析学生FWI长期趋势，使用灰色模型GM(1, 1)预测未来10年的变化，并按照性别、年龄和城乡进行亚组分析。结果 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, 2019年中国7~18岁汉族学生FWI水平分别为(55.30±11.47)(47.43±11.92)(48.11±12.46)(48.75±12.81)(50.93±13.11)mL/kg。中国汉族学生2000—2019年FWI呈先降后升趋势，2006年左右降至最低点(约47.03 mL/kg)，预测2029年恢复至52.88 mL/kg。2000—2019年男生各年及总体FWI水平均高于女生(t=72.58~304.66)，且在2000—2005年的降低幅度(13.1%)小于女生(15.4%)；但男女差距逐渐缩小，预测2029年缩至5.36 mL/kg。FWI随着年龄增加而增高，其中2014年7~9岁至16~18岁年龄组间增加最多(8.62 mL/kg)。2014年前城市男生FWI水平稍低于乡村男生，随后差异缩小，预计到2029年城乡男生FWI水平相近；城市女生FWI普遍高于乡村女生，且城乡差距有增大趋势，预计2029年13~15岁组城乡女生相差最大(7.74 mL/kg)。结论 2000—2019年中国汉族学生FWI呈先降后升趋势，存在性别、年龄和城乡差异。需要加强对乡村女生呼吸健康状况的关注，采取有效措施缩小城乡差距。
- 肺活量体重指数 /
- 模型，统计学 /
- 学生 /
- 生长和发育
Abstract: Objective To explore the long-term trend of forced vital capacity-to-weight index (FWI) among Chinese Han students aged 7-18 from 2000 to 2019, and to predict its changes over the next decade, so as to provide scientific evidences for targeted health interventions and school health policies. Methods Based on the data of the five Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health conducted from 2000 to 2019, a total of 216 500, 233 565, 215 267, 214 256 and 212 632 Han students aged 7-18 were included, respectively. The long-term trend of FWI among students was analyzed, and the GM (1, 1) grey model was used to predict FWI changes over the next decade. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex, age, and urban-rural residence. Results The FWI levels of Chinese Han students aged 7-18 were (55.30±11.47)(47.43±11.92)(48.11±12.46)(48.75±12.81)(50.93±13.11)mL/kg in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, and 2019, respectively. The FWI of Chinese Han students showed a decreasing-then-increasing trend from 2000 to 2019, reaching the lowest point of approximately 47.03 mL/kg around 2006, and was projected to recover to 52.88 mL/kg by 2029. Boys had higher FWI for each year and the total level than girls from 2000 to 2019(t=72.58-304.66), and the decline between 2000 and 2005 was smaller in boys (13.1%) than in girls (15.4%). However, the gender gap gradually narrowed and was projected to reduce to 5.36 mL/kg by 2029. FWI increased with age, with the largest difference observed in 2014 between the 7-9 and 16-18 age groups (8.62 mL/kg). Before 2014, urban boys had slightly lower FWI than rural boys; the gap narrowed thereafter, and their FWI levels were expected to become similar by 2029. Urban girls generally had higher FWI than rural girls, and the urban-rural gap showed an increasing trend. By 2029, the largest difference was projected to occur in the 13-15 age group, reaching 7.74 mL/kg. Conclusions The FWI of Chinese Han students showed a trend of initial decline followed by a gradual increase from 2000 to 2019, with notable differences across sex, age, and urban-rural residence. Greater attention should be paid to the respiratory health of rural girls, and effective measures should be taken to reduce urban-rural disparities.
- Forced vital capacity-to-weight index /
- Models, statistical /
- Students /
- Growth and development
注释:

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图 1 中国7~18岁不同年龄汉族学生2000—2029年FWI水平及变化趋势

注：虚线部分为预测趋势。

Figure 1. FWI level and trend of change of age among Han students aged 7 to 18 years in China from 2000 to 2029

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 中国7~18岁汉族学生2000—2029年城乡和性别FWI及变化趋势

注：虚线部分为预测趋势。

Figure 2. FWI and trend of change of urban-rural and sex among Chinese Han students aged 7 to 18 years from 2000 to 2029

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 中国汉族学生2000—2029年年龄别FWI城乡和性别差异及变化趋势

注：虚线部分为预测趋势。

Figure 3. Differences and trend of change of urban-rural and sex in FWI among Chinese Han students from 2000 to 2029, by age group

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 中国城乡不同性别7~18岁汉族学生各年份FWI水平(x±s，mL/kg)

Table 1. FWI level of Chinese Han students aged 7 to 18 years by urban-rural residence and sex in different years(x±s, mL/kg)

城乡	性别	2000年		2005年		2010年		2014年		2019年		总体
城乡	性别	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI
城市	男	54 387	58.63±12.04	59 081	50.70±12.58	53 822	51.30±13.00	53 575	52.31±13.68	53 776	54.28±13.94	274 641	53.44±13.05
	女	54 394	51.65±10.98	58 510	43.61±11.64	53 740	44.82±11.95	53 618	45.72±12.32	52 892	48.30±12.62	273 154	46.82±11.90
乡村	男	53 833	59.62±11.66	58 277	52.04±12.37	53 840	52.00±12.94	53 596	52.24±13.31	52 879	53.93±13.54	272 425	53.97±12.76
	女	53 886	51.17±11.20	57 697	43.39±11.08	53 865	44.34±11.95	53 467	44.71±11.90	53 085	47.22±12.35	272 000	46.17±11.70
合计		216 500	55.30±11.47	233 565	47.43±11.92	215 267	48.11±12.46	214 256	48.75±12.81	212 632	50.93±13.11	1 092 220	50.10±12.35

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表 2 中国7~18岁不同性别与年龄组汉族学生各年份FWI水平比较(x±s，mL/kg)

Table 2. FWI level of Chinese Han students aged 7 to 18 years by sex and age in different years(x±s, mL/kg)

性别与年龄	选项	统计值	2000年		2005年		2010年		2014年		2019年		总体
性别与年龄	选项	统计值	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI	人数	FWI
性别	男		108 220	59.13±11.85	117 358	51.37±12.48	107 662	51.65±12.97	107 171	52.28±13.50	106 655	54.11±13.74	547 066	53.71±12.91
	女		108 280	51.41±11.09	116 207	43.50±11.36	107 605	44.58±11.95	107 085	45.22±12.11	105 977	47.76±24.97	545 154	46.50±11.80
		t值		156.50		159.40		131.21		127.42		72.58		304.66
		P值		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01
年龄/岁	7~9		54 105	53.38±12.93	57 453	43.83±12.60	53 804	44.84±13.28	53 658	44.57±13.48	53 877	47.60±13.99	272 897	46.84±13.26
	10~12		54 307	54.72±12.27	58 324	46.17±12.56	53 894	46.65±13.10	53 747	46.94±13.42	53 921	49.64±13.70	274 193	48.82±13.01
	13~15		53 930	55.59±11.94	58 436	48.26±12.80	53 860	48.76±13.09	53 841	50.27±13.54	53 295	52.15±13.50	273 362	51.01±12.97
	16~18		54 158	57.33±12.10	59 352	51.51±13.20	53 709	52.23±13.25	53 010	53.19±13.57	51 539	54.40±13.65	271 768	53.73±13.15
		F值		977.90		3 397.25		3 117.37		4 173.97		2 458.73		13 906.13
		P值		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01		< 0.01

下载: 导出CSV

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