高等职业院校学生累积生态风险与未来取向及健康危险行为的交叉滞后分析

曾直; 符刚; 李可; 王美芬; 伍炼; 张天成; 张福兰

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025092

高等职业院校学生累积生态风险与未来取向及健康危险行为的交叉滞后分析

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025092

曾直¹,
符刚¹,
李可¹,
王美芬¹,
伍炼²,
张天成^3, ,,
张福兰³

1.
湘西民族职业技术学院公共课部体育教研室，湖南 416000
2.
湖南省商务职业技术学院体育课部选项课教研室
3.
吉首大学体育科学学院

基金项目:

教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目 22YJA880086

湖南省教育科学“十四五”规划一般资助项目 XJK22BTW011

详细信息

作者简介:
曾直(1982-)，男，湖南吉首人，硕士，副教授，主要研究方向为青少年体质与健康促进

通讯作者:
张天成，E-mail: jdzhangtiancheng@163.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 C913.5 G479
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- 文章访问数: 55
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-09-30
- 修回日期: 2025-02-05
- 网络出版日期: 2025-04-03
- 刊出日期: 2025-03-25

Cross lag analysis of cumulative ecological risk and future orientation with health risk behaviors among higher vocational college students

1.
Department of Physical Education, Basic Courses, Xiangxi Vocational and Technical College for Nationalities, Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture (416000), Hunan Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的探究高等职业(简称“高职”)院校学生累积生态风险、未来取向和健康危险行为因果关系，为减少与预防高职院校学生健康危险行为发生提供参考。方法采用方便抽样方法，使用累积生态风险量表、未来结果考虑量表、健康危险行为量表作为测量工具，对湖南省2所高职院校612名在校学生进行3次追踪测量(T1：2022年9月，T2：2023年6月，T3：2024年3月)。构建交叉滞后模型，考察累积生态风险、未来取向及健康危险行为的纵向因果关系，采用Bootstrap检验变量间的纵向中介效应。结果 T1、T2、T3高职院校学生累积生态风险得分分别为(2.94±1.44，2.99±1.63，3.02±1.54)分，未来取向得分分别为(40.49±4.71，41.51±5.72，41.06±4.35)分，健康危险行为得分分别为(3.73±2.01，3.49±2.00，3.23±2.00)分。重复测量方差分析结果显示，T2未来取向得分高于T1，测量时间主效应有统计学意义(F=5.09，P＜0.01，η²=0.02)，T1健康危险行为得分高于T2，T2健康危险行为得分高于T3，测量时间主效应有统计学意义(F=10.12，P＜0.01，η²=0.03)。构建的交叉滞后模型结果显示，χ²/df=7.20(P＜0.01)，相对拟合指标GFI=0.98，CFI=0.99，TLI=0.96，IFI=0.99，NFI=0.99，绝对拟合指标RMSEA=0.06，说明具有良好的适配度；其中T1、T2累积生态风险分别负向预测T2、T3未来取向(β值分别为-0.24，-0.47)，T1、T2累积生态风险分别正向预测T2、T3健康危险行为(β值分别为0.20，0.24)，T1、T2未来取向分别负向预测T2、T3健康危险行为(β值分别为-0.25，-0.18)(P值均＜0.01)。Bootstrap检验结果发现，T2未来取向在T1累积生态风险与T3健康危险行为间起纵向中介作用(β=0.04，P＜0.01)。结论高职院校学生累积生态风险能正向预测健康危险行为，未来取向能负向预测健康危险行为，且未来取向在累积生态风险与健康危险行为间起纵向中介作用。
- 累积生态风险 /
- 危险行为 /
- 精神卫生 /
- 交叉研究 /
- 学生
Abstract: Objective To explore the causal link of cumulative ecological risk and future orientation with health risk behaviors among higher vocational college students, so as to provide reference for reducing and preventing health risk behaviors among higher vocational college students. Methods A longitudinal follow-up study was conducted on 612 students using convenience sampling from 2 vocational colleges in Hunan Province. The Cumulative Ecological Risk Scale, Future Orientation Scale, and Health Risk Behavior Scale were used during three follow-up visits (T1: September 2022, T2: June 2023, T3: March 2024), and a cross-lagged panel model was constructed to examine the longitudinal causal relationship of cumulative ecological risk, future orientation and health risk behaviors. Analysis of longitudinal intermediary effect between variables by Bootstrap. Results The cumulative ecological risk scores of T1, T2 and T3 among higher vocational college students were (2.94±1.44, 2.99±1.63, 3.02±1.54), future orientation scores (40.49±4.71, 41.51±5.72, 41.06±4.35) and health risk behavior scores (3.73±2.01, 3.49±2.00, 3.23±2.00). The results of repeated measures ANOVA showed that the future orientation score of T2 was higher than that of T1, and the main effect of measurement time was statistically significant (F=5.09, P < 0.01, η²=0.02). The health risk behavior score of T1 was higher than that of T2, and the health risk behavior score of T2 was higher than that of T3, and the main effect of measurement time was statistically significant (F=10.12, P < 0.01, η²=0.03).The cross-lagged model showed good adaptability, with χ²/df=7.20 (P < 0.01), relative fitting indicators GFI=0.98, CFI=0.99, TLI=0.96, IFI=0.99, NFI=0.99, and absolute fitting indicator RMSEA=0.06. Among them, the T1, T2 cumulative ecological risk showed negatively predictive effects on T2, T3 future orientation (β=-0.24, -0.47), and T1, T2 cumulative ecological risk positively predicted T2, T3 health risk behavior (β=0.20, 0.24), while T1, T2 future orientation negatively predicted T2, T3 health risk behavior (β=-0.25, -0.18) (P < 0.01). Bootstrap test analysis found that T2 future orientation had a longitudinal mediating effect (β=0.04, P < 0.01) on the T1 cumulative ecological risk and T3 health risk behavior. Conclusions The accumulation of ecological risk among higher vocational college students can positively predict health-risk behaviors, while future orientation can negatively predict health-risk behaviors. Moreover, future orientation plays a longitudinal mediating role between accumulated ecological risks and health-risk behaviors.
- Cumulative ecological risk /
- Dangerous behavior /
- Mental health /
- Cross-over studies /
- Students
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图 1 高职院校学生累积生态风险、未来取向和健康危险行为的交叉滞后模型

注：图中数值为β值。

Figure 1. Cross-lag model of students in vocational colleges cumulative ecological risk, future orientation, and health risk behaviors

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表 1 高职院校学生累积生态风险、未来取向和健康危险行为的性别与时间效应分析(x±s)

Table 1. Gender and time effect analysis of cumulative ecological risk, future orientation, and health risk behaviors in vocational college students(x±s)

测试时间	性别	人数	累积生态风险	未来取向	健康危险行为
T1	男	280	3.14±1.44	40.09±4.89	4.11±2.13
	女	332	2.79±1.42	40.83±4.52	3.46±1.90
	合计	612	2.94±1.44	40.49±4.71	3.73±2.01
T2	男	280	3.18±1.55	41.41±5.62	3.51±2.04
	女	332	2.82±1.65	41.57±5.79	3.47±1.97
	合计	612	2.99±1.63	41.51±5.72	3.49±2.00
T3	男	280	3.43±1.64	40.76±4.63	3.38±2.10
	女	332	2.96±1.45	41.23±4.19	3.11±1.91
	合计	612	3.02±1.54	41.06±4.35	3.23±2.00
F_时间值			2.17	5.09^**	10.12^**
F_性别值			11.38^**	0.48	1.09
F_{时间×性别}值			0.83	0.09	0.22
注：^P < 0.05，^*P < 0.01。

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表 2 高职院校学生累积生态风险、未来取向和健康危险行为的相关性分析(r值，n=612)

Table 2. Correlation analysis of cumulative ecological risks, future orientation, and health risk behaviors in vocational college students(r, n=612)

变量	T1累积生态风险	T2累积生态风险	T3累积生态风险	T1未来取向	T2未来取向	T3未来取向	T1健康危险行为	T2健康危险行为
T2累积生态风险	0.32
T3累积生态风险	0.25	0.36
T1未来取向	-0.36	-0.73	-0.43
T2未来取向	-0.31	-0.41	-0.23	0.37
T3未来取向	-0.39	-0.74	-0.43	0.80	0.38
T1健康危险行为	0.35	0.35	0.20	-0.34	-0.29	-0.35
T2健康危险行为	0.28	0.37	0.17	-0.32	-0.32	-0.33	0.20
T3健康危险行为	0.22	0.33	0.35	-0.41	-0.31	-0.40	0.19	0.21
注：P值均 < 0.01。

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