Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China

ZANG Xiao; ZOU Yanzheng; TAO Luqiu; JIANG Shangde; MEI Wei; MA Lianzheng; TAN Gao; LIU Tao; LIU Xiaoli; HONG Shanchao; WANG Wei

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124

Volume 46 Issue 4

Apr. 2025

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH > 2025 > 46(4): 573-578

ZANG Xiao, ZOU Yanzheng, TAO Luqiu, JIANG Shangde, MEI Wei, MA Lianzheng, TAN Gao, LIU Tao, LIU Xiaoli, HONG Shanchao, WANG Wei. Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2025, 46(4): 573-578. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124

Citation:

ZANG Xiao, ZOU Yanzheng, TAO Luqiu, JIANG Shangde, MEI Wei, MA Lianzheng, TAN Gao, LIU Tao, LIU Xiaoli, HONG Shanchao, WANG Wei. Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2025, 46(4): 573-578. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124

Citation:

ZANG Xiao, ZOU Yanzheng, TAO Luqiu, JIANG Shangde, MEI Wei, MA Lianzheng, TAN Gao, LIU Tao, LIU Xiaoli, HONG Shanchao, WANG Wei. Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2025, 46(4): 573-578. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124

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Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124

1.
School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (211166), Jiangsu Province, China

Received Date: 2025-03-18
Rev Recd Date: 2025-03-31

Available Online: 2025-05-08

Publish Date: 2025-04-25

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To investigate the trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the control interventions for childhood asthma in China. Methods The prevalent case, age-standard prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standard DALYs rate of children with asthma at ages of 0 to 14 years and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The temporal trends in the disease burden of childhood asthma were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI), and the disease burden due to asthma was projected among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035. Results There were 9.368 3 million (95%UI=6.410 7 million to 14.026 1 million) prevalent cases of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021, contributing to 0.387 9 million (95%UI=0.216 1 million to 0.668 8 million) DALYs loss. The prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma decreased by 37.28% and 52.55% among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021 compared with 1990, and the age-standardized prevalence [EAPC=-0.70%, 95%CI=-1.26% to-0.13%)] and DALY rates [EAPC=-1.71%, 95%CI=-2.32% to-1.10%)] also appeared a tendency towards a decline. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalent cases, prevalence, DALYs and DALYs rate of asthma were all higher among male children than among female children, and the disease burden of asthma was higher among children at ages of 5 to 9 years than at other age groups. BAPC model predicted a decline in both prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035, with 6.759 6 million prevalent cases and DALYs of 0.228 4 million person-years in 2035, while the prevalence and DALYs rates were projected to rise to 5 143.35/10⁵ and 173.75/10⁵ in 2035. Conclusions Despite a reduction in the disease burden of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021, the prevalence remained high. The disease burden due to asthma is projected to appear a decline among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035; however, the prevalence and DALYs rates still rise. Intensified control measures and targeted interventions are required to reduce the disease burden of childhood asthma.
- Asthma,
- Symptom burden,
- Prevalence,
- Child,
- China

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References(33)

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