Analysis of disease burden for bipolar disorder in Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years and trend prediction

ZHAO Zihe; ZHU Jiawen; HUANG Qianling; ZENG Zhi

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025041

Volume 46 Issue 2

Feb. 2025

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ZHAO Zihe, ZHU Jiawen, HUANG Qianling, ZENG Zhi. Analysis of disease burden for bipolar disorder in Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years and trend prediction[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2025, 46(2): 266-271. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025041

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ZHAO Zihe, ZHU Jiawen, HUANG Qianling, ZENG Zhi. Analysis of disease burden for bipolar disorder in Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years and trend prediction[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2025, 46(2): 266-271. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025041

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Analysis of disease burden for bipolar disorder in Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years and trend prediction

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025041

School of Health Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing (210023), Jiangsu Province, China

Received Date: 2024-10-22
Rev Recd Date: 2024-11-28

Available Online: 2025-03-05

Publish Date: 2025-02-25

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the burden of bipolar disorder among adolescents aged 10-24 in China from 1990 to 2021 and its trend of change, so as to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of bipolar disorder. Methods The latest data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database in 2021 were selected. The Joinpoint regression model, age-period-cohort (APC) model, and bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were used to analyze and predict indicators such as the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of bipolar disorder among Chinese adolescents, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated. Results From 1990 to 2021, the overall age-standardized incidence rate (1990:22.92/100 000, 2021:23.17/100 000) showed an upward trend (AAPC=0.03, t=8.20, P < 0.01) and change trend of age-standardized DALY rate (1990:33.61/100 000, 2021:33.76/100 000) was relatively flat (AAPC=0.01, t=0.99, P=0.32). From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate of girls were higher than boys (χ²=16.38, P < 0.01). The net drift values for the incidence rate and DALY rate of bipolar disorder among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years were -0.23% and -0.22%, respectively. The highest incidence rate of bipolar disorder among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years was observed in the 15-19 age group, with a rate of 33.14/100 000; the highest DALY risk was in the 20-24 age group, with a rate of 57.26/100 000. The lowest incidence risk and DALY risk RR values for bipolar disorder among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years were observed in 2017-2021, with RR values of 0.99 (95%CI=0.97-1.00) and 0.98 (95%CI=0.97-0.99), respectively (P < 0.05). Similarly, the lowest incidence risk and DALY risk RR values for this age group were observed in the 2000-2004 birth cohort, both of which were 0.86 (95%CI=0.84-0.87) (P < 0.05). It was projected that the overall age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate of bipolar disorder among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years will continue to increase from 2022 to 2031, reaching 24.10/100 000 and 34.90/100 000, respectively, by 2031. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, both the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate of bipolar disorder among Chinese adolescents shows an upward trend. Special attention should be given to female adolescents, with a focus on controlling the age-standardized incidence rate of bipolar disorder among 15-19 year-old adolescents and the age-standardized DALY rate among 20-24 year-old ones. Efforts should be enhanced to increase awareness and screening for bipolar disorder among adolescents.
- Bipolar disorder,
- Cost of illness,
- Disability-adjusted life year,
- Adolescent

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References(42)

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