Assessment of transmission capacity of influenza and effect evaluation of suspension measures in schools and nurseries

XU Yucheng; ZHANG Ruiyin; ZHOU Zhifeng; ZHONG Jianming; CHEN Haochuan; ZHAO Menglan; LI Xueyun

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2021.02.028

Volume 42 Issue 2

Apr. 2021

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH > 2021 > 42(2): 273-276

XU Yucheng, ZHANG Ruiyin, ZHOU Zhifeng, ZHONG Jianming, CHEN Haochuan, ZHAO Menglan, LI Xueyun. Assessment of transmission capacity of influenza and effect evaluation of suspension measures in schools and nurseries[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2021, 42(2): 273-276. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2021.02.028

Citation:

XU Yucheng, ZHANG Ruiyin, ZHOU Zhifeng, ZHONG Jianming, CHEN Haochuan, ZHAO Menglan, LI Xueyun. Assessment of transmission capacity of influenza and effect evaluation of suspension measures in schools and nurseries[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2021, 42(2): 273-276. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2021.02.028

Citation:

XU Yucheng, ZHANG Ruiyin, ZHOU Zhifeng, ZHONG Jianming, CHEN Haochuan, ZHAO Menglan, LI Xueyun. Assessment of transmission capacity of influenza and effect evaluation of suspension measures in schools and nurseries[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHOOL HEALTH, 2021, 42(2): 273-276. doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2021.02.028

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Assessment of transmission capacity of influenza and effect evaluation of suspension measures in schools and nurseries

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2021.02.028

1.
Office of Emergenly Response, Futian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen(518040), Guangdong Province, China

Received Date: 2020-07-08
Rev Recd Date: 2020-08-23

Available Online: 2021-04-06

Publish Date: 2021-02-25

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To estimate the transmission capacity of influenza clustering in schools and nurseries, and to evaluate the effect of suspension measures, providing a basis for formulating disease management strategies and control measures. Methods The SEIAR dynamics model was used to simulate the epidemic data, calculating the basic regeneration coefficient R₀ of the epidemic to evaluate the epidemic transmission capacity, and calculating the cumulative incidence rate of the epidemic to evaluate the prevention and control effect of the suspension measures. Results The basic regeneration coefficient R₀ was 8.44(8.01, 8.89) without intervention. There were statistically significant differences in R₀ of influenza epidemic among different types of school(F=9.52, P < 0.01). The R₀ of influenza epidemic in primary and secondary schools were higher than that in nurseries(P < 0.05). R₀ of influenza A was higher than that of influenza B(t=2.71, P < 0.01). R₀ of influenza A(H3) was higher than of influenza B(Victoria)(P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence of the outbreaks which were suspended for 4 days and 7 days was significantly lower than that in the non-suspensions(P < 0.05). However, there was no significant difference in the cumulative incidence of the outbreaks between the 4-day suspension and the 7-day suspension(P>0.05). Conclusion Transmission capacity of school-based influenza epidemic is high, especially among primary and secondary schools. When the epidemic situation of infected class meets the suspension standard, it is recommended to suspend classes for 4 days.
- Influenza, human,
- Disease outbreaks,
- Organization and administration,
- Child day care centers,
- Students health services

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References(22)

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