Application of Generalized Additive Model in the research of influence of meteorological factors and hand foot and mouth disease

Objective To investigate the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD),and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control strategies of HFMD.Methods Generalized additive model (GAM) with Quasi-Poisson function to analyze the relationship between the weekly cases of HFMD and meteorological factors in Haidian District of Beijing from 2008 to 2014.Results There were reported 33 704 cases of HFMD in Haidian District during 2008-2014,the weekly average was 92 cases,the incidence rate was 143.8/10 million people.And there were 20 718 males and 12 986 females,the sex ratio of male to female was 1.60:1.There were no one month without cases of HFMD in every year.The peak incidence was mainly concentrated in the 5-8 months,and there were 24 460 cases totally,accounting for 72.57% of the total incidence.The overall trend of the incidence showed an increase 2008-2014,the lowest was 94.2/10 million people (2 904 cases)in 2009,and the highest was 216.9/10 million people (7 115 cases) in 2010.The incidence of HFMD showed significant seasonality,mainly concentrated in summer and autumn.With one unit increasing exceed the threshold of average temperature,relative humidity and sunshine hours (9.1 ℃,40.2%,7.7 h),the incidence of HFMD significantly increased 4.81%(3.99%-5.64%),0.30% (0.10%-0.50%),2.02%(0.63%-3.43%).And with one unit decreasing below 1 014.5 kPa of air pressure,the incidence of HFMD significantly increased 5.76%(4.52%-7.01%).Conclusion This study suggests that meteorological factors may be an important factor for the incidence of HFMD,which should be considered in prevention and control frameworks of HFMD in the future.Furthermore,GAM can be used to examine the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors.