广州市儿童2014—2020年其他感染性腹泻流行特征及气候因素分析

马晓薇; 杜欢纯; 王瑶; 唐思丽; 范伟东; 杨倩; 刘伟佳; 陆剑云; 袁俊; 张周斌

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025217

广州市儿童2014—2020年其他感染性腹泻流行特征及气候因素分析

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025217

马晓薇^{1, 2},
杜欢纯^{1, 2},
王瑶^{1, 2},
唐思丽^{1, 2},
范伟东³,
杨倩^{1, 2},
刘伟佳^{1, 2},
陆剑云⁴,
袁俊^{2, 5},
张周斌^{2, 5, ,}

1.
广州市疾病预防控制中心(广州市卫生监督所)学校卫生部, 广东 510440
2.
广州医科大学公共卫生研究院
3.
南方医科大学公共卫生学院
4.
广州市白云区疾病预防控制中心主任室
5.
广州市疾病预防控制中心(广州市卫生监督所)主任室

基金项目:

广州市科技计划项目 202206080003

广州市科技计划项目 2025A03J3687

详细信息

作者简介:
马晓薇(1985-)，女，广东广州人，硕士，副主任医师，主要研究方向为学校卫生及疾病控制

通讯作者:
张周斌，E-mail: zhang_zhoubin@163.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 R181.3⁺² R442.2
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- 文章访问数: 11
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-01-20
- 修回日期: 2025-03-10
- 网络出版日期: 2025-08-02
- 刊出日期: 2025-07-25

Epidemiological characteristics and trends of other infectious diarrhea among children during 2014-2020 in Guangzhou City

MA Xiaowei^{1, 2},
DU Huanchun^{1, 2},
WANG Yao^{1, 2},
TANG Sili^{1, 2},
FAN Weidong³,
YANG Qian^{1, 2},
LIU Weijia^{1, 2},
LU Jianyun⁴,
YUAN Jun^{2, 5},
ZHANG Zhoubin^{2, 5
, ,}

1.
Institute of Health Inspection, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Guangzhou Health Supervision Institute, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的对广州市18岁以下儿童2014—2020年其他感染性腹泻的流行特征及趋势进行分析，探讨气候因素与发病的相关性，为传染病的早期预防提供参考。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统和广州市气象局，收集2014—2020年广州市其他感染性腹泻发病数及气象数据，利用负二项回归分析气象因素与其他感染性腹泻发病的相关性。结果 2014—2020年广州市共报告18岁以下儿童其他感染性腹泻104 566例，男女性别比为1.48∶1。2017年发病率最高(980.83/10万)，2020年发病率最低(388.22/10万)，发病高峰在每年的10月至次年3月。5岁以下儿童发病数占所有儿童病例数的87.95%。其他感染性腹泻发病数与发病前6 d的气温呈负相关(IRR=-0.07)，与发病当天温差呈正相关(IRR=0.02)，与发病前7 d的风速呈正相关(IRR=0.07)(P值均＜0.05)；但与当天相对湿度的相关无统计学意义(IRR=-0.00，P＞0.05)。结论低温、温差大以及风速高可增加儿童其他感染性腹泻的发病风险。应联动气象变化加强预测预警，联合托幼机构和学校在高风险时期加强预防。
- 腹泻 /
- 流行病学研究 /
- 回归分析 /
- 儿童
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of other infectious diarrhea among children under 18 years old in Guangzhou City from 2014 to 2020, and to explore the correlation between climatic factors and the incidence of the disease, so as to provide reference for the early prevention of infectious diseases. Methods The data of cases of other infectious diarrhea and meteorological data of children under 18 years old in Guangzhou City from 2014 to 2020 were collected through the Chinese Infectious Disease Reporting System and the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. The correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of other infectious diarrhea was analyzed using negative binomial regression. Results A total of 104 566 cases of other infectious diarrhea among children under 18 years old were reported in Guangzhou City from 2014 to 2020, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.48∶1. The incidence rate was the highest in 2017 (980.83 per 100 000) and the lowest in 2020 (388.22 per 100 000). The peak of incidence occurred from October to March of the following year. Children under 5 years old accounted for 87.95% of all cases. The number of cases of other infectious diarrhea was negatively correlated with the temperature of the previous 6 days (IRR=-0.07), and positively correlated with the temperature difference on the day of onset (IRR=0.02) (both P < 0.05). It was also positively correlated with the wind speed of the previous 7 days (IRR=0.07, P < 0.05), but there was no statistically significant correlation with the relative humidity on the day of onset (IRR=-0.00, P > 0.05). Conclusions Low temperature, large temperature difference, and high wind speed can increase the risk of other infectious diarrhea. It is necessary to strengthen the prediction and early warning in conjunction with meteorological changes, and warn kindergartens and schools to enhance preventive measures against the clustering of other infectious diarrhea cases.
- Diarrhea /
- Epidemiologic studies /
- Regression analysis /
- Child
注释:

1) 利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。

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图 1 广州市2014—2020年儿童其他感染性腹泻发病时间序列

Figure 1. Time series of other infectious diarrhea diseases in children under 18 years old in Guangzhou City from 2014 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 广州市2014—2020年18岁以下儿童其他感染性腹泻发病与气象因素的交叉分析(r值，n=104 566)

Table 1. Cross-analysis of the incidence of other infectious diarrhea diseases and meteorological factors in children under 18 years old in Guangzhou City from 2014 to 2020(r, n=104 566)

气象因素	当天	滞后1 d	滞后2 d	滞后3 d	滞后4 d	滞后5 d	滞后6 d	滞后7 d
气温	-0.39	-0.40	-0.41	-0.41	-0.42	-0.42	-0.43	-0.43
温差	0.13	0.12	0.11	0.11	0.10	0.10	0.11	0.11
相对湿度	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.15
气压	0.42	0.42	0.43	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.44	0.44
风速	0.09	0.08	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.09
降水量	-0.21	-0.19	-0.18	-0.20	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.20
注：P值均＜0.01。

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 广州市2014—2020年气象因素对儿童其他感染性腹泻发病效应负二项回归分析(n=104 566)

Table 2. Analysis of negative binomial regression on the effects of meteorological factors on other infectious diarrhea diseases in children in Guangzhou City from 2014 to 2020(n=104 566)

截距与气象因素	标准误	IRR值(95%CI)	P值
截距	0.39	5.39(4.62~6.16)	＜0.01
发病前6 d气温	0.01	-0.07(-0.09~-0.06)	＜0.01
发病当天相对湿度	0.00	-0.00(-0.01~0.00)	0.33
发病前7 d风速	0.04	0.07(0.00~0.15)	0.04
发病当天温差	0.01	0.02(0.01~0.03)	＜0.01

下载: 导出CSV

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