中国儿童1990—2021年哮喘疾病负担变化及未来趋势预测

臧潇; 邹言峥; 陶璐秋; 姜尚德; 梅伟; 马连政; 谭高; 刘涛; 刘小利; 洪善超; 汪伟

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124

中国儿童1990—2021年哮喘疾病负担变化及未来趋势预测

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025124

臧潇¹,
邹言峥²,
陶璐秋²,
姜尚德¹,
梅伟¹,
马连政³,
谭高⁴,
刘涛⁴,
刘小利⁴,
洪善超⁵,
汪伟^{1, 2, ,}

1.
南京医科大学公共卫生学院, 江苏 211166
2.
国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病预防与控制技术重点实验室/江苏省寄生虫与媒介控制技术重点实验室/江苏省血吸虫病防治研究所
3.
江南大学无锡医学院
4.
中国人民武装警察部队湖南省总队医院
5.
江南大学附属中心医院医学检验科

基金项目:

江苏省无锡市“双百”中青年医疗卫生后备拔尖人才项目 HB2023024

详细信息

作者简介:
臧潇(1998- )，女，山东泰安人，在读硕士，主要研究方向为过敏性哮喘流行病学及发病机制

通讯作者:
汪伟，E-mail: wangwei@jipid.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 R562.2⁺⁵ R181.3⁺²
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-03-18
- 修回日期: 2025-03-31
- 网络出版日期: 2025-05-08
- 刊出日期: 2025-04-25

Trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma from 1990 to 2021 and future projections in China

1.
School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing (211166), Jiangsu Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析1990—2021年中国儿童期哮喘疾病负担变化趋势，并预测2022—2035年疾病负担，为中国制定儿童哮喘防控措施提供科学依据。方法基于全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库，提取1990—2021年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘患病人数、年龄标化患病率、失能调整生命年(DALYs)、年龄标化DALYs率及其95%不确定区间(UI)。通过估算各参数的年度百分比变化(EAPC)及其95%置信区间(CI)评估疾病负担的时间变化趋势。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2022—2035年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘疾病负担。结果 2021年，中国0~14岁儿童哮喘患病人数为936.83(95%UI=641.07~1 402.61)万例，DALYs为38.79(95%UI=21.61~66.88)万人年。与1990年相比，2021年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘患病人数和DALYs分别下降37.28%和52.55%，年龄标化患病率和DALYs率均呈下降趋势[EAPC(95%CI)分别为-0.70%(-1.26%~-0.13%)和-1.71%(-2.32%~-1.10%)]。1990—2021年，男童哮喘患病人数、年龄标化患病率、DALYs和年龄标化DALYs率均高于女童，5~9岁儿童哮喘疾病负担高于其他年龄段。BAPC模型预测显示，2022—2035年中国儿童哮喘患病人数、DALYs均呈下降趋势，2035年分别为675.96万例和22.84万人年；而年龄标化患病率、年龄标化DALYs率2035年分别上升为5 143.35/10万和173.75/10万。结论 1990—2021年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘疾病负担有所下降，但患病率仍处于较高水平；预测2022—2035年中国0~14岁儿童哮喘疾病负担有所下降，但其患病率、DALYs率仍升高。需持续加强防控措施并实施有针对性的干预措施，以进一步降低儿童哮喘疾病负担。
- 哮喘 /
- 症状负担 /
- 患病率 /
- 儿童 /
- 中国
Abstract: Objective To investigate the trends in disease burden due to childhood asthma in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the control interventions for childhood asthma in China. Methods The prevalent case, age-standard prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standard DALYs rate of children with asthma at ages of 0 to 14 years and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The temporal trends in the disease burden of childhood asthma were evaluated with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI), and the disease burden due to asthma was projected among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035. Results There were 9.368 3 million (95%UI=6.410 7 million to 14.026 1 million) prevalent cases of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021, contributing to 0.387 9 million (95%UI=0.216 1 million to 0.668 8 million) DALYs loss. The prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma decreased by 37.28% and 52.55% among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China in 2021 compared with 1990, and the age-standardized prevalence [EAPC=-0.70%, 95%CI=-1.26% to-0.13%)] and DALY rates [EAPC=-1.71%, 95%CI=-2.32% to-1.10%)] also appeared a tendency towards a decline. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalent cases, prevalence, DALYs and DALYs rate of asthma were all higher among male children than among female children, and the disease burden of asthma was higher among children at ages of 5 to 9 years than at other age groups. BAPC model predicted a decline in both prevalent cases and DALYs of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035, with 6.759 6 million prevalent cases and DALYs of 0.228 4 million person-years in 2035, while the prevalence and DALYs rates were projected to rise to 5 143.35/10⁵ and 173.75/10⁵ in 2035. Conclusions Despite a reduction in the disease burden of asthma among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021, the prevalence remained high. The disease burden due to asthma is projected to appear a decline among children at ages of 0 to 14 years in China from 2022 to 2035; however, the prevalence and DALYs rates still rise. Intensified control measures and targeted interventions are required to reduce the disease burden of childhood asthma.
- Asthma /
- Symptom burden /
- Prevalence /
- Child /
- China
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图 1 中国儿童1990—2021年哮喘疾病负担变化趋势

Figure 1. Temporal trends in the disease burden of childhood asthma in China from 1990 to 2021

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表 1 中国不同性别年龄儿童1990年和2021年哮喘患病人数及年龄标化患病率

Table 1. Prevalence and age-standardized prevalence of asthma among children by genders and age groups in China between 1990 and 2021

性别与年龄	选项	病例数/万例		年龄标化患病率/10^-5
性别与年龄	选项	1990年	2021年	1990年	2021年
性别	男	863.76(613.67~1 240.82)	562.02(387.41~839.90)	5 214.76(4 100.62~7 174.41)	4 020.18(3 176.26~5 692.19)
	女	629.95(436.56~905.52)	374.81(255.27~565.37)	4 161.99(3 304.41~5 695.16)	3 078.96(2 352.33~4 353.26)
年龄/岁	＜5	518.74(326.74~753.45)	259.55(148.94~395.42)	4 639.67(2 922.38~6 738.89)	3 341.81(1 917.63~5 091.20)
	5~9	607.13(400.96~964.87)	422.71(271.37~681.12)	5 822.20(3 845.15~9 252.88)	4 413.82(2 833.56~7 112.01)
	10~14	367.84(238.34~564.32)	254.56(162.16~393.01)	3 595.93(2 330.01~5 516.78)	2 953.39(1 881.32~4 559.70)

性别与年龄	选项	DALYs/万人年		年龄标化DALYs率/10^-5
性别与年龄	选项	1990年	2021年	1990年	2021年
性别	男	46.32(31.46~71.89)	23.27(12.85~40.62)	278.93(224.88~397.24)	166.49(123.25~261.80)
	女	35.45(23.79~54.12)	15.52(85.03~26.66)	234.39(191.79~324.78)	127.57(91.51~193.85)
年龄/岁	＜5	34.86(24.23~49.33)	10.79(52.11~18.82)	311.78(216.69~441.17)	138.90(67.09~242.32)
	5~9	28.80(17.12~48.72)	17.45(91.05~31.99)	276.17(164.19~467.17)	182.17(95.07~334.04)
	10~14	18.11(11.00~29.52)	10.56(54.29~18.36)	177.03(107.53~288.60)	122.51(62.98~213.01)
注： ( )内数字为95%UI。

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表 2 中国儿童2022—2035年哮喘疾病负担变化趋势预测

Table 2. Projection of trends in disease burdens due to childhood asthma in China from 2022 to 2035

年份	总体				男童				女童
年份	病例数/万例	年龄标化患病率/10^-5	DALYs/万人年	年龄标化DALYs率/10^-5	病例数/万例	年龄标化患病率/10^-5	DALYs/万人年	年龄标化DALYs率/10^-5	病例数/万例	年龄标化患病率/10^-5	DALYs/万人年	年龄标化DALYs率/10^-5
2022	914.07	3 731.94	37.29	152.24	547.53	4 180.01	22.33	170.49	366.64	3 217.68	14.96	131.32
2023	900.43	3 800.90	36.42	153.73	539.54	4 264.54	21.81	172.35	361.06	3 271.07	14.62	132.48
2024	884.96	3 880.03	35.41	155.24	530.77	4 363.63	21.20	174.29	354.50	3 330.34	14.22	133.59
2025	869.61	3 970.05	34.34	156.79	522.28	4 477.95	20.57	176.34	347.82	3 396.28	13.79	134.67
2026	854.13	4 067.27	33.26	158.37	513.76	4 602.40	19.92	178.46	341.01	3 466.51	13.35	135.73
2027	834.63	4 168.98	32.02	159.95	502.77	4 733.28	19.19	180.63	332.61	3 539.22	12.85	136.76
2028	812.72	4 275.83	30.71	161.57	490.29	4 871.48	18.40	182.86	323.28	3 614.98	12.32	137.78
2029	790.34	4 388.26	29.40	163.23	477.49	5 017.60	17.62	185.17	313.78	3 694.14	11.79	138.82
2030	768.03	4 505.57	28.11	164.93	464.71	5 170.81	16.85	187.54	304.33	3 776.21	11.27	139.88
2031	744.86	4 626.46	26.83	166.66	451.34	5 329.45	16.09	189.96	294.58	3 860.28	10.76	140.96
2032	718.04	4 750.60	25.45	168.41	435.74	5 492.95	15.26	192.40	283.42	3 946.23	10.20	142.04
2033	696.43	4 878.06	24.29	170.17	423.23	5 661.46	14.57	194.88	274.36	4 034.10	9.73	143.13
2034	682.25	5 008.95	23.42	171.95	415.10	5 835.14	14.04	197.39	268.34	4 123.91	9.38	144.23
2035	675.96	5 143.35	22.84	173.75	411.95	6 014.16	13.69	199.93	265.28	4 215.73	9.14	145.33

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