新疆1985—2019年汉族中小学生体重变化时间序列分析

马雯; 刘一心

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025066

新疆1985—2019年汉族中小学生体重变化时间序列分析

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025066

马雯,
刘一心^,

新疆师范大学体育学院，乌鲁木齐 830054

详细信息

作者简介:
马雯(1989-)，女，新疆乌鲁木齐人，硕士，副教授，主要研究方向为体质与健康

通讯作者:
刘一心，E-mail：liuyixin202307@126.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-10-19
- 修回日期: 2024-11-25
- 网络出版日期: 2025-04-03
- 刊出日期: 2025-03-25

Time series analysis of weight changes among Han primary and secondary school students in Xinjiang from 1985 to 2019

MA Wen,
LIU Yixin^,

Department of Physical Education, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi(830054), Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析1985—2019年新疆汉族中小学生体重变化规律，为少数民族地区青少年制定营养政策提供科学依据。方法选取1985—2019年全国学生体质与健康调研中新疆7~18岁汉族中小学生的体重测试数据，采用一般线性模型检验、单因素方差分析、t检验进行统计学分析，通过时间序列分析法预测2025和2030年的体重发育趋势。结果 1985—2019年，新疆汉族男、女中小学生的体重呈现持续上升趋势(男生：B=0.25，女生：B=0.16)；7~18岁各年龄组新疆男、女生体重各年份间差异均有统计学意义(男生：F=102.35~142.05，女生：F=98.03~140.59)(P值均 < 0.01)。与1985年相比，2019年城市男、女生和乡村男、女生体重分别增长了11.92，7.95；11.36，5.61 kg，城市学生体重增长均值大于乡村。1985—2019年，城市男、女生的体重均高于乡村男、女生(男生：t=30.12~37.55，女生：t=30.12~38.64，P值均 < 0.01)；其中2005年城乡男、女生的体重差距最大，分别为4.23和2.32 kg。2025和2030年7~18各年龄组男女生体重均值继续增加；与2019年相比，2030年男生7岁年龄组增长最大(2.29 kg)，女生17岁年龄组增长最大(3.75 kg)。结论 1985—2019年新疆7~18岁学生体重呈现上升趋势，2025和2030年男女生体重均逐渐增加。需关注学生身体健康，预防并综合施策超重肥胖。
- 体重 /
- 时间 /
- 序列分析 /
- 学生
Abstract: Objective To analyze the time-varying characteristics of weight among Han primary and secondary school students in Xinjiang from 1985 to 2019, so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating nutrition policies for adolescents in ethnic minority areas. Methods Weight data of Han primary and secondary school students aged 7-18 in Xinjiang from the National Student Physical Fitness and Health Survey from 1985 to 2019 were selected. Statistical analysis was conducted by using general linear model test, one-way ANOVA and t-test. The weight development trends in 2025 and 2030 were predicted through time-series analysis. Results From 1985 to 2019, the weight of Han Chinese boys and girls from primary and secondary schools in Xinjiang showed a continuous upward trend (boys: B=0.25, girls: B=0.16, P < 0.01). There were statistically significant differences in weight between boys and girls aged 7-18 in different years (boys: F=102.35-142.05, girls: F=98.03-140.59, P < 0.01). Compared with 1985, the weight of urban boys and girls increased by 11.92 and 7.95 kg in 2019, as well as rural boys and girls by 11.36 and 5.61 kg, and the average weight gain of urban students was greater than that of rural students. From 1985 to 2019, the weight of urban boys and girls were higher than that of rural boys and girls (boys: t=30.12-37.55, girls: t=30.12-38.64, P < 0.01). In 2005, the weight difference between urban and rural boys and girls was the largest, at 4.23 and 2.32 kg. The average weight of boys and girls in the age groups of 7-18 would continue to increase in 2025 and 2030; compared with 2019, the 7-year-old age group for boys and the 17-year-old age group for girls would have the largest growth in 2030 by 2.29 and 3.75 kg. Conclusions From 1985 to 2019, the weight of students aged 7-18 in Xinjiang showed an upward trend, and the weights of both boys and girls would gradually increase in 2025 and 2030. Attention should be paid to students' physical health and adopt comprehensive measures to prevente overweight and obesity.
- Body weight /
- Time /
- Sequence analysis /
- Students
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表 1 新疆1985—2019年汉族不同年龄中小学生体重比较(x ± s, kg)

Table 1. Comparison of body weight of Han students of different ages in Xinjiang from 1985 to 2019(x ± s, kg)

年龄/岁	男生						女生
年龄/岁	1985年	1995年	2005年	2014年	2019年	F值	1985年	1995年	2005年	2014年	2019年	F值
7	20.93±0.03	22.43±0.04^*	23.63±0.11^*	24.67±0.10^*	25.48±0.06^*	102.35	20.13±0.02	21.55±0.06^*	22.43±0.04^*	23.23±0.04^*	22.22±0.10^*	98.03
8	22.97±0.03	24.42±0.03^*	25.96±0.11^*	26.57±0.10^*	27.03±0.16^*	114.78	21.56±0.02	23.70 ±0.06^*	24.96±0.04^*	25.47±0.04^*	24.97±0.11^*	102.90
9	25.11±0.03	27.63±0.03^*	28.20±0.11^*	29.61±0.11^*	32.18±0.16^*	117.92	24.44±0.02	26.33±0.06^*	27.44±0.04^*	28.54±0.04^*	29.59±0.12^*	119.99
10	27.42±0.02	30.46±0.06^*	31.35±0.13^*	34.36±0.12^*	35.13±0.17^*	110.45	25.13±0.02	29.75 ±0.06^*	30.41±0.04^*	30.97±0.04^*	31.65±0.10^*	107.83
11	30.33±0.02	33.93±0.06^*	36.13±0.13^*	39.13±0.12^*	41.24±0.11^*	113.67	29.34±0.02	34.03±0.05^*	35.80±0.04^*	37.32±0.06^*	37.11±0.06^*	118.73
12	33.05±0.02	37.39±0.06^*	38.78±0.13^*	45.40±0.12^*	44.69±0.17^*	118.23	38.98±0.02	38.46±0.05^*	39.76±0.05^*	41.38±0.06^*	41.77±0.06^*	129.93
13	38.39±0.05	44.19±0.05^*	47.38±0.13^*	46.34±0.13^*	51.56±0.18^*	120.89	37.44±0.02	43.18±0.05^*	44.18±0.08^*	45.82±0.07^*	47.42±0.06^*	128.69
14	44.00±0.05	50.35±0.05^*	50.56±0.13^*	55.00±0.15^*	59.08±0.11^*	125.34	43.55±0.02	45.81±0.05^*	47.32±0.08^*	49.70±0.07^*	51.58±0.06^*	132.33
15	54.94±0.04	52.14±0.12^*	53.59±0.14^*	58.88±0.16^*	63.77±0.19^*	130.12	47.55±0.02	47.95±0.07^*	48.74±0.08^*	49.82±0.08^*	53.71±0.07^*	136.67
16	55.49±0.04	55.38±0.09^*	56.66±0.14^*	61.37±0.18^*	64.88±0.19^*	138.56	48.78±0.02	49.52±0.07^*	50.74±0.08^*	51.56±0.08^*	55.59±0.12^*	143.31
17	58.57±0.04	56.78±0.07^*	59.62±0.16^*	60.89±0.19^*	64.58±0.19^*	139.79	49.21±0.02	50.16±0.07^*	51.38±0.08^*	52.55±0.12^*	56.68±0.12^*	136.24
18	60.02±0.03	58.51±0.08^*	62.19±0.16^*	62.09±0.19	68.12±0.25^*	142.05	49.77±0.02	50.50±0.07^*	51.44±0.08^*	51.90±0.08^*	56.30±0.12^*	140.59
注： ^*与前一个年份比较，P < 0.05；F值对应的P值均 < 0.01。

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表 2 新疆1985—2019年7~18岁不同性别汉族学生体重均值时间序列增长量和增长速度

Table 2. The time series of increase amount and rate in average body weight of Han male and female students aged 7 to 18 in Xinjiang from 1985 to 2019

年龄/岁	年份	男生增长量/kg		男生增长速度/%		女生增长量/kg		女生增长速度/%
年龄/岁	年份	逐期	累计	逐期	累计	逐期	累计	逐期	累计
7	1995	0.41	0.22	1.99	3.21	2.40	2.68	3.53	4.08
	2005	1.14	1.90	3.04	4.75	2.63	3.18	3.90	4.46
	2014	1.05	2.91	2.86	3.61	2.75	4.62	2.06	5.46
	2019	1.32	5.15	2.95	6.11	2.82	1.90	3.51	4.42
8	1995	2.83	3.47	3.46	6.80	4.51	4.05	2.65	1.76
	2005	4.77	6.27	0.94	8.66	4.25	3.57	2.81	2.00
	2014	3.80	4.14	5.26	4.36	4.66	5.65	4.16	2.13
	2019	3.45	6.87	7.52	4.69	3.86	4.41	2.40	2.72
9	1995	6.16	1.79	3.24	1.40	1.32	0.65	0.22	2.40
	2005	3.88	2.49	-0.48	1.20	1.17	0.34	0.40	2.63
	2014	3.76	2.29	1.87	0.62	1.88	1.09	-0.38	2.75
	2019	1.11	-0.30	3.54	0.01	2.25	0.29	0.77	2.82
10	1995	1.73	1.99	3.21	2.83	2.68	3.53	4.08	4.51
	2005	1.90	3.04	4.75	4.77	3.18	3.90	4.46	4.25
	2014	2.91	2.86	3.61	3.80	4.62	2.06	5.46	4.66
	2019	5.15	2.95	6.11	3.45	1.90	3.51	4.42	3.86
11	1995	3.47	3.46	6.80	6.16	4.05	2.65	1.76	1.32
	2005	6.27	0.94	8.66	3.88	3.57	2.81	2.00	1.17
	2014	4.14	5.26	4.36	3.76	5.65	2.75	4.62	2.06
	2019	6.87	7.52	4.69	1.11	4.41	2.40	2.72	2.25
12	1995	1.79	3.24	1.40	1.73	0.65	0.22	2.40	2.68
	2005	2.49	-0.48	1.20	1.90	0.34	0.40	2.63	3.18
	2014	2.29	1.87	0.62	2.91	5.46	4.66	5.65	4.16
	2019	-0.30	3.54	0.01	5.15	0.29	0.77	2.82	1.90
13	1995	0.41	0.22	1.99	3.21	2.40	2.68	3.53	4.08
	2005	1.14	1.90	3.04	4.75	2.63	3.18	3.90	4.46
	2014	1.05	2.91	2.86	3.61	2.75	4.62	2.06	5.46
	2019	1.32	5.15	2.95	6.11	2.82	1.90	3.51	4.42
14	1995	2.83	3.47	3.46	6.80	4.51	4.05	2.65	1.76
	2005	4.77	6.27	0.94	8.66	4.25	3.57	2.81	2.00
	2014	3.80	4.14	5.26	4.36	4.66	5.65	4.16	2.13
	2019	3.45	6.87	7.52	4.69	3.86	4.41	2.40	2.72
15	1995	6.16	1.79	3.24	1.40	1.32	0.65	0.22	2.40
	2005	3.88	2.49	-0.48	1.20	1.17	0.34	0.40	2.63
	2014	3.76	2.29	1.87	0.62	1.88	1.09	-0.38	2.75
	2019	1.11	-0.30	3.54	0.01	2.25	0.29	0.77	2.82
16	1995	1.73	1.99	3.21	2.83	2.68	3.53	4.08	4.51
	2005	1.90	3.04	4.75	4.77	3.18	3.90	4.46	4.25
	2014	2.91	2.86	3.61	3.80	4.62	2.06	5.46	4.66
	2019	5.15	2.95	6.11	3.45	1.90	3.51	4.42	3.86
17	1995	3.47	3.46	6.80	6.16	4.05	2.65	1.76	1.32
	2005	6.27	0.94	8.66	3.88	3.57	2.81	2.00	1.17
	2014	4.14	5.26	4.36	3.76	5.65	2.75	4.62	2.06
	2019	6.87	7.52	4.69	1.11	4.41	2.40	2.72	2.25
18	1995	1.79	3.24	1.40	1.73	0.65	0.22	2.40	2.68
	2005	2.49	-0.48	1.20	1.90	0.34	0.40	2.63	3.18
	2014	2.29	1.87	0.62	2.91	5.46	4.66	5.65	4.16
	2019	-0.30	3.54	0.01	5.15	0.29	0.77	2.82	1.90
注：逐期增长量及增长速度均以前一个调查年为基准。

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表 3 新疆1985—2019年汉族不同性别中小学生体重城乡比较(x ± s，kg)

Table 3. Body weight difference between urban and rural areas of Han primary and secondary school students of different genders in Xinjiang from 1985 to 2019(x ± s, kg)

性别	年份	城市		乡村		t值
性别	年份	人数	体重	人数	体重	t值
男	1985	3 668	38.68±13.62	4 283	36.88±13.40	30.12
	1995	1 800	42.44±14.90	1 800	39.17±13.96	37.55
	2005	2 608	46.07±16.28	2 530	41.84±14.78	30.45
	2014	1 800	49.13±17.17	1 800	46.05±16.24	36.44
	2019	1 813	50.60±18.38	1 693	48.20±17.61	35.64
女	1985	4 283	36.86±11.63	4 283	35.93±12.16	30.12
	1995	1 800	39.33±12.10	1 800	37.40±12.07	32.55
	2005	2 615	41.41±12.58	2 502	39.09±12.14	32.45
	2014	1 800	43.57±13.00	1 800	41.78±12.62	37.44
	2019	1 789	44.81±13.96	1 702	43.56±13.59	38.64
注： P值均 < 0.01。

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表 4 新疆不同性别中小学生体重模型参数估计及2025和2030年预测值

Table 4. Estimation and prediction of body weight model parameters of primary and secondary school students of different genders from 1985 to 2019 in Xinjiang in 2025 and 2030

性别	年龄/岁	ARIMA模型	AR系数	t值	P值	Box-Ljung Test P值	2019年均值/kg	2025年预测值(95%CI)/kg	2030年预测值(95%CI)/kg
男	7	3, 2, 0	0.92	0.67	< 0.01	0.85	27.03	28.43(27.12~29.32)	29.32(28.11~29.66)
	8	2, 1, 0	0.95	1.78	< 0.01	0.01	31.68	32.24(31.45~33.65)	33.46(32.56~34.25)
	9	3, 2, 0	0.62	1.03	< 0.01	0.03	34.67	35.09(34.66~35.96)	36.23(34.96~37.12)
	10	3, 2, 0	-0.41	29.79	< 0.01	0.01	40.68	41.21(40.68~42.35)	41.27(40.68~42.35)
	11	3, 1, 0	-0.52	-0.18	< 0.01	0.06	44.13	44.64(44.12~45.32)	44.76(44.12~45.32)
	12	2, 1, 0	0.95	23.03	< 0.01	0.76	50.93	51.42(50.96~52.14)	51.63(50.96~52.14)
	13	3, 1, 0	-0.58	7.54	< 0.01	0.22	58.60	58.91(57.98~59.67)	59.13(57.98~59.67)
	14	3, 1, 0	0.94	30.87	< 0.01	0.96	62.44	62.96(61.34~64.23)	63.84(61.34~64.23)
	15	3, 1, 0	0.94	37.19	< 0.01	0.60	64.00	64.56(63.56~66.45)	65.21(63.56~66.45)
	16	3, 2, 0	0.91	0.71	< 0.01	0.99	63.82	64.80(63.56~66.45)	65.32(63.56~66.45)
	17	3, 2, 0	0.89	10.23	< 0.01	0.74	67.77	68.22(67.34~68.45)	68.69(67.76~69.23)
	18	3, 1, 0	0.92	7.71	< 0.01	0.23	67.85	68.54(67.76~69.23)	69.12(68.76~69.97)
女	7	2, 1, 0	0.94	17.38	< 0.01	0.89	21.91	22.26(21.95~23.42)	23.45(22.35~24.12)
	8	3, 1, 0	0.92	13.22	< 0.01	0.40	24.70	25.00(24.36~25.68)	25.78(24.69~26.22)
	9	1, 3, 0	-0.98	-43.28	< 0.01	0.97	27.96	28.57(27.63~29.14)	29.71(28.14~30.21)
	10	1, 2, 0	-0.99	-74.53	< 0.01	0.96	30.75	31.22(30.52~32.14)	31.74(30.78~32.54)
	11	3, 2, 0	0.96	18.13	< 0.01	0.34	35.69	36.81(34.96~37.12)	37.38(35.75~38.23)
	12	3, 1, 0	0.97	6.57	< 0.01	0.53	39.95	41.42(40.68~42.35)	42.03(41.21~42.98)
	13	3, 1, 0	0.98	3.06	< 0.01	0.77	44.98	45.72(44.35~46.32)	47.36(45.68~48.21)
	14	2, 1, 0	0.97	3.96	< 0.01	0.74	48.26	49.63(48.12~50.16)	51.32(50.96~52.14)
	15	3, 1, 0	0.98	3.21	< 0.01	0.94	50.68	53.66(51.65~54.32)	54.12(53.69~55.32)
	16	0, 2, 0	0.95	10.25	< 0.01	0.04	52.75	53.74(51.65~54.32)	54.68(53.69~55.32)
	17	0, 3, 0	-0.97	-23.56	< 0.01	0.03	53.44	56.16(55.32~56.98)	57.19(55.32~58.21)
	18	0, 2, 0	0.99	2.47	< 0.01	0.04	53.63	55.45(54.32~56.51)	56.96(55.32~58.21)
注： Box-Ljung Test P值>0.05说明序列良好，预测结果可靠。

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