陕西省2016—2023年水痘流行趋势与空间聚集特征分析

朱妮; 杨国婧; 王舒; 李欣欣

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025049

陕西省2016—2023年水痘流行趋势与空间聚集特征分析

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2025049

陕西省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所，西安 710054

基金项目:

三秦英才特殊支持计划创新创业团队项目 2023-12

详细信息

作者简介:
朱妮(1985-)，女，陕西宝鸡人，硕士，副主任医师，主要从事传染病监测及防控工作

通讯作者:
李欣欣，E-mail：547774144@qq.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 R181.3⁺² R511.5
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-11-04
- 修回日期: 2024-12-11
- 网络出版日期: 2025-03-05
- 刊出日期: 2025-02-25

Analysis of epidemiological trend and spatial aggregation characteristics from 2016 to 2023 of varicella in Shaanxi Province

Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Institute, Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an (710054), Shaanxi Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的掌握陕西省水痘病例分布特征和发病趋势，为指导制定科学精准的防控策略和措施提供参考。方法使用中国疾病预防控制中心“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”子系统“监测报告管理系统”中的2016—2023年陕西省161 377份水痘病例资料进行描述性分析；利用FlexScan 3.1.2软件开展不规则空间聚集性扫描，探测各年份空间聚集区域。结果陕西省水痘发病呈现季节性双峰分布，主要集中在4—7月(36.68%)和10月至次年1月(48.07%)；病例主要集中在3~12岁组(60.50%)，2021年起0~19岁年龄组内部出现高发年龄后移的趋势；发病人群分布以学生(62.40%)和幼托儿童(17.78%)为主；暴发疫情主要发生在小学(76.47%)。地区分布主要集中在陕南和关中部分地区；通过空间探测，2016—2023年一级聚集区主要集中在陕南的安康市和汉中市，次级聚集区主要聚集在与其相邻的关中部分地区(西安市、宝鸡市和渭南市)。结论陕南和关中地区、3~12岁学生和幼托儿童是陕西省水痘防控的重点。各地应持续开展水痘监测和疫苗接种措施，积极推进2剂次疫苗接种策略和重点人群强化接种工作。
- 水痘 /
- 疾病暴发流行 /
- 发病率 /
- 流行病学研究
Abstract: Objective To grasp the distribution characteristics and incidence trend of varicella in Shaanxi Province, so as to provide a reference for scientific and accurate prevention and control strategies. Methods Data of 161 377 varicella cases in Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2023 were collected and described from Surveillance Report Management System, a subsystem of National Disease Control and Prevention Information Systems of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. FlexScan 3.1.2 software was used to determine irregular spatial clustering, and spatial clustering area was detected for each year. Results The incidence of varicella in Shaanxi Province showed a seasonal bimodal distribution with peaks from April to July (36.68%) and from October to next January (48.07%). The cases were mainly concentrated in the 3-12 years old group (60.50%), and there was a trend of high incidence age shift within the 0-19 age group from 2021. Most of the cases were students (62.40%) and preschool children (17.78%). The outbreaks mainly occurred in primary schools (76.47%). The regional distribution was mainly concentrated in some areas of southern Shaanxi and Guanzhong. Through spatial analysis, the primary clusters were primarily concentrated in Ankang and Hanzhong cities in southern Shaanxi from 2016 to 2023, and the secondary clusters were mainly found in some areas of Guanzhong (Xi'an, Baoji and Weinan cities). Conclusions Prevention and control of varicella should be focused on students and kindergartens aged 3-12 years in southern and Guanzhong areas of Shaanxi Province. Continuous varicella surveillance and vaccination measures should be carried out, and the two-dose vaccination strategy and intensive vaccination of key groups should be actively promoted.
- Chickenpox /
- Disease outbreaks /
- Incidence /
- Epidemiologic studies
注释:

1) 利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。

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图 1 2016—2023年陕西省水痘发病性别分布

Figure 1. Gender distribution of chickenpox incidence in Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 陕西省2016—2023年水痘发病年龄分布

Figure 2. Age distribution of chickenpox incidence in Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 陕西省2016—2023年水痘暴发疫情时间分布

Figure 3. Temporal distribution of varicella outbreaks in Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 陕西省2016—2023年报告水痘病例空间聚集地区

Table 1. Spatial clusters of varicella cases reported in Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2023

年份	类型	地区	RR值	LLR值	P值
2016	一级聚集区	陕南(汉台区/南郑县/城固县/洋县/勉县/镇巴县/佛坪县/汉滨区/汉阴县/石泉县/宁陕县/紫阳县/平利县)	2.40	1 472.06	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	关中(碑林区/灞桥区/未央区/雁塔区/长安区/蓝田县/华县)	1.87	682.67	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	关中(渭滨区/金台区/岐山县/扶风县/凤县/太白县//杨陵区)；陕南(留坝县)	1.86	269.04	< 0.01
	次级聚集区3	关中(潼关县/华阴市)	2.17	86.96	< 0.01
2017	一级聚集区	关中(雁塔区/长安区)；陕南(佛坪县/汉阴县/石泉县/宁陕县)	2.41	996.80	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	关中(渭滨区/金台区/凤县/太白县)；陕南(汉台区/南郑县/城固县)	2.36	881.53	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	陕南(汉滨区/紫阳县/岚皋县/平利县/镇坪县)	1.65	135.97	< 0.01
	次级聚集区3	关中(灞桥区/未央区/蓝田县/高陵县)	1.52	121.09	< 0.01
	次级聚集区4	关中(凤翔县/扶风县/千阳县/麟游县)	1.49	56.82	< 0.01
2018	一级聚集区	陕南(汉台区/南郑县/城固县/洋县/镇巴县/汉滨区/汉阴县/石泉县/宁陕县/紫阳县/岚皋县/平利县)	2.12	1 426.92	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	关中(碑林区/灞桥区/未央区/雁塔区/长安区/户县/高陵县)	2.05	1 419.94	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	陕南(汉滨区)；关中(渭滨区/金台区/凤县/太白县)	1.87	192.95	< 0.01
2019	一级聚集区	关中(碑林区/灞桥区/未央区/雁塔区/阎良区/临潼区/长安区/蓝田县/高陵县)	1.89	1 676.94	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	陕南(佛坪县/汉滨区/汉阴县/宁陕县/紫阳县/平利县)	2.34	848.43	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	关中(渭滨区/凤县)；陕南(汉台区/南郑县/留坝县)	1.93	419.92	< 0.01
	次级聚集区3	陕北(吴起县/定边县)	1.52	42.09	< 0.01
2020	一级聚集区	陕南(汉滨区/汉阴县/岚皋县)	4.60	3 621.31	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	陕南(汉台区/留坝县)	5.88	2 556.25	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	关中(临潼区/临渭区)	1.78	289.03	< 0.01
	次级聚集区3	陕北(榆阳区/神木县/府谷县)	1.61	183.51	< 0.01
	次级聚集区4	陕南(南郑县/城固县)	1.48	73.65	< 0.01
	次级聚集区5	陕南(石泉县/宁陕县)	1.91	61.45	< 0.01
2021	一级聚集区	陕南(城固县/洋县/佛坪县/汉滨区/汉阴县/宁陕县/紫阳县/平利县/镇坪县)	2.15	766.59	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	关中(灞桥区/阎良区/临潼区/长安区/高陵县/泾阳县)	1.54	294.21	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	关中(周至县/户县/太白县/杨陵区)	1.80	189.07	0.001
	次级聚集区3	关中(渭滨区/凤县)；陕南(汉台区/南郑县/留坝县)	1.44	87.59	< 0.01
	次级聚集区4	陕北(吴起县/定边县)	1.81	72.29	0.001
2022	一级聚集区	陕南(汉滨区/汉阴县/宁陕县/紫阳县/岚皋县/平利县/镇坪县/旬阳县/白河县)	2.12	514.98	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	关中(长安区/周至县/户县/杨陵区)	2.03	495.71	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	关中(碑林区/灞桥区/雁塔区/阎良区/临潼区/蓝田县/高陵县)	1.37	164.62	< 0.01
	次级聚集区3	关中(渭滨区/凤县)	1.79	48.73	< 0.01
	次级聚集区4	陕北(吴起县/定边县)	1.69	40.79	< 0.01
2023	一级聚集区	陕南(汉滨区/汉阴县/岚皋县)	2.75	655.55	< 0.01
	次级聚集区1	关中(新城区/碑林区/灞桥区/未央区/长安区/蓝田县/户县/高陵县)；陕南(柞水县)	1.58	598.46	< 0.01
	次级聚集区2	关中(渭滨区/凤县)；陕南(南郑县/勉县/略阳县)	1.40	56.57	< 0.01
	次级聚集区3	陕南(平利县/旬阳县/白河县)	1.41	24.59	< 0.01

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