中国10~24岁青少年进食障碍疾病负担现状及趋势预测

陆地; 曾智; 朱迪; 何艺娟; 陈思念

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2024252

中国10~24岁青少年进食障碍疾病负担现状及趋势预测

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2024252

南京中医药大学卫生经济管理学院，江苏 210023

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目 82101602

详细信息

作者简介:
陆地(2001-)，女，江苏连云港人，在读硕士，主要研究方向为社会医学与卫生事业管理

通讯作者:
曾智，E-mail: zengzhi@njucm.edu.cn

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 R153.2 R155.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-03-07
- 修回日期: 2024-05-14
- 网络出版日期: 2024-08-31
- 刊出日期: 2024-08-25

Current status and trend prediction of the disease burden of eating disorders among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years

School of Health Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing (210023), Jiangsu Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析1990—2019年中国10~24岁青少年进食障碍疾病负担指标及趋势预测，为青少年进食障碍的预防与控制提供参考。方法根据全球疾病负担(GBD)2019数据库的最新数据，按照性别、年龄组等指标进行分类，使用Joinpoint回归模型以及贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型分析并预测中国10~24岁青少年进食障碍的发病率、患病率以及失能调整生命年(DALY)率等数据，探究该人群近30年进食障碍的疾病负担变化趋势。结果 1990—2019年，中国青少年进食障碍的总体粗发病率由278.93/10万上升到422.27/10万；粗患病率由122.63/10万上升到198.80/10万；粗DALY率由26.67/10万上升到43.50/10万。分性别看，男生和女生进食障碍的标化发病率、标化患病率及标化DALY率均呈现上升趋势(男：AAPC值分别为1.52%，1.84%，1.86%；女：AAPC值分别为1.28%，1.74%，1.77%，P值均＜0.05)，男生进食障碍的标化发病率、标化患病率以及标化DALY率的变化率(54.97%，68.88%，69.75%)均高于女生(44.26%，64.48%，65.56%)，差异均有统计学意义(χ²值分别为201.45，35.02，34.55，P值均＜0.05)。分年龄组看，15~19岁年龄组发病率(524.10/10万)高于其他年龄组(10~14岁：251.17/10万，20~24岁：476.49/10万)(χ²=156.87，P < 0.05)；20~24岁年龄组的患病率(278.67/10万)和DALY率(60.83/10万)均高于其他组(10~14岁：81.79/10万，18.02/10万，15~19岁：221.81/10万，48.59/10万)(χ²值分别为204.50，197.14，P值均 < 0.05)。BAPC预测模型显示，未来中国青少年进食障碍发病率仍呈现上升趋势，但患病率与DALY率呈现稳步下降趋势，2030年可能分别达到516.43/10万、188.41/10万和41.23/10万。结论中国青少年进食障碍疾病负担不断提高，男生和15~19岁人群是重点防治人群。社会各方应积极采取相关措施，注重青少年进食障碍的预防与治疗。
- 进食障碍 /
- 患病代价 /
- 模型，统计学 /
- 青少年
Abstract: Objective To analyze the burden indicators and trend predictions of eating disorders in Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019, so as to provide a reference for the prevention and control of eating disorders among adolescents. Methods According to the latest data of the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD) 2019 database classified by gender, age group and other indicators, the Joinpoint regression model and bayesian age period cohort model(BAPC) were used to analyze and predict the incidence rate, prevalence and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of eating disorders among Chinese adolescents aged 10 to 24 years old, and explore the trend of the disease burden of eating disorders in this population in the past three decades. Results From 1990 to 2019, the overall crude incidence rate of eating disorders among adolescents in China increased from 278.93/10⁵ to 422.27/10⁵, and the crude incidence rate increased from 122.63/10⁵ to 198.80/10⁵, and the crude DALY rate increased from 26.67/10⁵ to 43.50/10⁵. In terms of gender, the standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence rate and standardized DALY rate of eating disorders of boys and girls all showed an upward trend(boys: AAPC=1.52%, 1.84%, 1.86%, girls: AAPC=1.28%, 1.74%, 1.77%, P < 0.05). The standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence rate and standardized DALY rate of boys with eating disorders (54.97%, 68.88%, 69.75%) were higher than those of girls (44.26%, 64.48%, 65.56%), and the differences were statistically significant (χ²=201.45, 35.02, 34.55, P < 0.05). In terms of age groups, the incidence rate of the 15-19-year-old age group (524.10/10⁵) was higher than that of other age groups (10-14-year-old age: 251.17/10⁵, 20-24-year-old age: 476.49/10⁵) (χ²=156.87, P < 0.05), the prevalence rate of the 20-24-year-old age group (278.67/10⁵) and the DALY rate (60.83/10⁵) were higher than those of other age groups (10-14-year-old age: 81.79/10⁵, 18.02/10⁵, 15-19-year-old age: 221.81/10⁵, 48.59/10⁵) (χ²=204.50, 197.14, P < 0.05). BAPC prediction model showed that in the future, the incidence rate of eating disorders among adolescents in China would still show an upward trend, but the prevalence rate and DALY rate would show a steady downward trend, which might reach 516.43/10⁵, 188.41/10⁵ and 41.23/10⁵ respectively in 2030. Conclusions The burden of eating disorders among adolescents in China continues to increase, with boys and those aged 15-19 years being the key populations for prevention and treatment. All sectors of society should actively take relevant measures and pay attention to the prevention and treatment of adolescent eating disorders.
- Eating disorders /
- Cost of illness /
- Models, statistical /
- Adolescent
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表 1 1990—2019年中国10~24岁青少年进食障碍疾病负担变化

Table 1. Changes in the disease burden of eating disorders among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China from 1990 to 2019

指标	性别	1990年			2019年			变化率/%
指标	性别	人(年)数/10⁴	粗率/10^-5	标化率/10^-5	人(年)数/10⁴	粗率/10^-5	标化率/10^-5	人(年)数	粗率	标化率
发病	男	72.03	387.44(234.31~575.49)	371.77(186.81~664.10)	71.26	588.05(355.46~884.25)	576.15(288.57~1031.51)	-1.07	51.77	54.97
	女	28.96	164.42(104.60~237.64)	160.45(90.42~272.29)	24.87	233.59(150.34~338.01)	231.47(132.58~391.96)	-14.12	42.07	44.26
	合计	100.99	278.93(172.73~412.64)	269.10(104.33~474.00)	96.13	422.27(260.38~627.10)	414.62(217.62~730.04)	-4.81	51.39	54.08
患病	男	18.35	98.69(65.23~141.27)	93.35(53.84~146.41)	19.78	163.25(106.61~234.62)	157.65(90.46~249.46)	7.79	65.42	68.88
	女	26.05	147.90(100.10~208.12)	140.22(88.47~209.23)	25.48	239.27(165.39~337.14)	230.63(147.11~341.17)	-2.19	61.78	64.48
	合计	44.40	122.63(85.22~168.45)	116.13(72.41~175.99)	45.26	198.80(136.25~275.50)	191.84(118.99~289.00)	1.94	62.11	65.19
DALY	男	3.99	21.49(12.19~34.09)	20.33(10.34~35.46)	4.33	35.73(20.49~56.96)	34.51(17.53~61.08)	8.52	66.26	69.75
	女	5.66	32.14(18.58~50.71)	30.49(16.47~50.04)	5.57	52.34(30.17~83.70)	50.48(27.70~84.74)	-1.59	65.65	65.56
	合计	9.66	26.67(15.33~41.87)	25.27(13.45~42.11)	9.90	43.50(25.20~69.26)	41.99(22.42~70.83)	2.48	63.10	66.17
注： ()内数字为95%CI。

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表 2 2022—2030年中国10~24岁青少年进食障碍疾病负担预测情况

Table 2. Prediction of the disease burden of eating disorders among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China from 2022 to 2030

年份	发病率/10^-5	患病率/10^-5	DALY率/10^-5
2022	444.25(436.50~451.99)	196.31(187.73~204.90)	42.96(41.10~44.82)
2023	452.52(439.50~465.54)	195.42(182.46~208.38)	42.76(39.95~45.57)
2024	461.05(441.75~480.35)	194.51(176.62~212.39)	42.56(38.69~46.44)
2025	469.79(443.44~496.15)	193.56(170.26~216.87)	42.35(37.31~47.40)
2026	478.71(444.68~512.75)	192.59(163.41~221.77)	42.14(35.82~48.46)
2027	497.14(446.22~530.06)	191.59(156.11~227.07)	41.92(34.24~49.61)
2028	506.67(446.61~566.74)	190.50(148.38~232.73)	41.70(32.57~50.83)
2029	516.43(446.77~586.08)	189.50(140.26~238.74)	41.47(30.80~52.13)
2030	516.43(446.73~606.08)	188.41(131.75~245.08)	41.23(28.96~53.50)
注： ()内数字为95%CI。

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