中国0~14岁儿童1990—2019年溺水死亡现状及趋势分析

戴萌娜; 袭燕; 尹文强; 陈钟鸣; 丰志强; 唐昌海

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2022.02.022

中国0~14岁儿童1990—2019年溺水死亡现状及趋势分析

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2022.02.022

1.
潍坊医学院公共卫生学院, 山东 261053
2.
山东省卫生健康委员会
3.
潍坊医学院管理学院

基金项目:

山东省自然科学基金项目 ZR2019MG010

国家自然科学基金项目 71373182

国家卫生健康委卫生技术评估重点实验室开放基金课题项目 FHTA2019-09

详细信息

作者简介:
戴萌娜(1992-), 女, 山东青岛人, 在读博士, 主要研究方向为卫生管理与卫生政策

通讯作者:
尹文强, E-mail: yinwq1969@126.com

利益冲突声明 所有作者声明无利益冲突。
中图分类号: R179 G478 R649.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-07-07
- 修回日期: 2021-10-19
- 网络出版日期: 2022-02-24
- 刊出日期: 2022-02-25

Incidence, mortality and trends of drowning among children aged 0-14 years in China, 1990-2019

1.
School of Public Health, Weifang Medical University, Weifang (261053), Shandong Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的了解中国1990—2019年0~14岁儿童溺水死亡情况, 并探讨其发展变化趋势, 为中国儿童溺水干预措施提供参考依据。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库中1990—2019年中国0~14岁儿童溺水死亡数据, 以世界标准人口计算其标准化率, 并利用Joinpoint回归模型分别拟合发生率、死亡率的变化趋势。结果中国1990—2019年0~14岁儿童溺水总体发生率从37.17/10万减少到12.54/10万, 相对下降了66.26%;标化发生率从21.78/10万减少到14.98/10万, 相对下降了31.22%。儿童溺水发生率、标化发生率呈先下降后增长的趋势, 死亡率、标化死亡率呈下降趋势。Joinpoint回归显示, 儿童溺水标化发生率年平均变化百分率总体为-1.3, 男童为-2.5, 女童为0;儿童溺水标化死亡率年平均变化百分率总体为-3.9, 男童为-3.6, 女童为-4.5;趋势变化均有统计学意义(P值均 < 0.05)。男童发生率、死亡率均高于女童, 男童与女童组间变化趋势差异有统计学意义(P值均 < 0.05)。结论中国儿童溺水发生率和死亡率大幅下降, 但是近年来发生率有所回升。儿童溺水危险因素有待进一步加强干预, 同时在儿童溺水重点人群上采取有效措施, 控制发生率与死亡率的进展。
- 溺水 /
- 死亡率 /
- 回归分析 /
- 儿童
Abstract: Objective To understand the incidence and mortality of drowning and secular trend among children aged 0-14 from 1990 to 2019 in China, so as to provide reference for drowning intervention among children in China. Methods Based on data of drowning incidence and death in 0-14 years old children in China in 1990-2019 years Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2019) database, the standardized rate was calculated by the world standard population, and the trend of incidence rate and mortality rate was fitted by Joinpoint regression model respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the overall incidence of drowning among children aged 0-14 years in China decreased from 37.17/100 000 to 12.54/100 000, a relative decrease of 66.26%; the standardized incidence rate decreased from 21.78/100 000 to 14.98/100 000, a relative decrease of 31.22%. The incidence rate and standardized incidence rate of drowning in children showed an increasing-after-decreasing trend, with decreasing mortality and standardized mortality rate. Joinpoint regression showed that the incidence rate of standardized AAPC for child drowning was -1.3, -2.5 for males and 0 for females. The overall standardized mortality rate of drowning was -3.9, male was -3.6, female was about -4.5, the trend changes were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The incidence rate and mortality rate of male were higher than that of female, and there was significant difference between male and female groups (P < 0.05). Conclusion Significant progress has been made in child drowning prevention and control, with substantial decreasing in the incidence rate of child drowning. However, considering recent slight increase in drowning incidence, effective measures should be developmed including risk factors, vulnerable population to further control the incidence and mortality of child drowning.
- Drowning /
- Mortality /
- Regression analysis /
- Child
注释:

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图 1 1990—2019年0~14岁儿童溺水标化发生率Joinpoint回归

Figure 1. Joinpoint regression of incidence rate of drowning children aged 0-14 years in 1990-2019

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图 2 1990—2019年0~14岁儿童溺水标化死亡率Joinpoint回归

Figure 2. Joinpoint regression analysis of standardized mortality of drowning children aged 0-14 from 1990 to 2019

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表 1 中国1990—2019年0~14岁儿童溺水发生情况/10^-5

Table 1. Incidence of drowning among children aged 0-14 in China from 1990 to 2019/10^-5

年份	总体		男童		女童
年份	发生率	标化发生率	发生率	标化发生率	发生率	标化发生率
1990	37.17	21.78	45.14	26.36	28.49	16.64
1991	37.54	21.75	45.35	26.16	28.98	16.74
1992	37.59	21.67	45.19	25.90	29.25	16.83
1993	37.37	21.57	44.70	25.59	29.30	16.92
1994	36.95	21.45	43.98	25.26	29.17	17.00
1995	36.35	21.31	43.09	24.93	28.87	17.05
1996	35.38	21.11	41.66	24.46	28.38	17.12
1997	33.95	20.79	39.51	23.74	27.72	17.22
1998	32.28	20.39	36.99	22.87	26.98	17.32
1999	30.58	19.95	34.43	21.94	26.24	17.38
2000	29.05	19.49	32.14	21.06	25.56	17.39
2001	27.58	19.02	30.00	20.14	24.84	17.38
2002	25.99	18.51	27.74	19.11	23.98	17.42
2003	24.35	17.99	25.49	18.04	23.04	17.46
2004	22.78	17.46	23.37	17.02	22.10	17.44
2005	21.40	16.93	21.53	16.12	21.25	17.32
2006	20.07	16.35	19.82	15.25	20.36	17.06
2007	18.68	15.69	18.10	14.32	19.35	16.70
2008	17.36	15.06	16.50	13.46	18.36	16.33
2009	16.25	14.55	15.17	12.78	17.53	16.01
2010	15.49	14.26	14.24	12.39	16.97	15.84
2011	15.01	14.17	13.62	12.24	16.64	15.79
2012	14.63	14.15	13.13	12.20	16.40	15.80
2013	14.30	14.18	12.70	12.20	16.20	15.84
2014	13.98	14.20	12.30	12.21	15.97	15.86
2015	13.60	14.17	11.81	12.18	15.71	15.84
2016	12.91	14.22	10.98	12.17	15.19	15.98
2017	12.42	14.38	10.43	12.27	14.76	16.25
2018	12.40	14.62	10.49	12.48	14.65	16.52
2019	12.54	14.98	10.80	12.80	14.59	16.88

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表 2 中国0~14岁儿童1990—2019年溺水死亡情况/10^-5

Table 2. Mortality of drowning among children aged 0-14 in China from 1990 to 2019/10^-5

年份	总体		男童		女童
年份	死亡率	标化死亡率	死亡率	标化死亡率	死亡率	标化死亡率
1990	31.78	13.62	38.42	16.79	24.54	10.24
1991	31.08	13.24	37.74	16.38	23.79	9.89
1992	29.79	12.73	36.44	15.81	22.49	9.44
1993	28.91	12.50	35.50	15.52	21.65	9.27
1994	28.10	12.24	34.31	15.09	21.24	9.18
1995	27.26	12.02	32.97	14.68	20.93	9.18
1996	25.92	11.63	31.53	14.25	19.66	8.82
1997	24.60	11.19	30.17	13.77	18.36	8.41
1998	23.59	10.96	28.96	13.47	17.56	8.26
1999	22.09	10.48	27.44	12.99	16.06	7.77
2000	20.88	10.17	26.17	12.70	14.88	7.43
2001	19.45	9.70	24.67	12.23	13.53	6.95
2002	17.94	9.27	23.25	11.86	11.89	6.47
2003	16.23	8.70	21.55	11.31	10.12	5.86
2004	15.29	8.35	20.40	10.94	9.38	5.55
2005	14.27	7.93	19.01	10.38	8.76	5.27
2006	13.11	7.30	17.53	9.60	7.95	4.80
2007	12.41	7.00	16.60	9.19	7.49	4.62
2008	12.16	6.76	16.39	8.96	7.18	4.37
2009	12.31	6.70	16.70	8.94	7.13	4.27
2010	11.63	6.45	15.70	8.59	6.81	4.14
2011	10.64	6.01	14.40	8.03	6.20	3.83
2012	9.96	5.78	13.56	7.77	5.69	3.65
2013	9.25	5.51	12.61	7.45	5.28	3.44
2014	8.54	5.33	11.60	7.21	4.91	3.34
2015	7.78	5.10	10.63	6.93	4.42	3.15
2016	7.22	4.94	9.83	6.72	4.13	3.05
2017	6.61	4.69	8.93	6.37	3.88	2.90
2018	6.15	4.48	8.27	6.08	3.65	2.78
2019	5.70	4.28	7.70	5.82	3.35	2.64

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