中国2005—2019年0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡趋势分析

戴萌娜; 袭燕; 尹文强; 陈钟鸣; 胡金伟; 丰志强; 唐昌海

doi:10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2021.09.033

中国2005—2019年0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡趋势分析

doi: 10.16835/j.cnki.1000-9817.2021.09.033

1.
潍坊医学院公共卫生学院, 山东 261053
2.
山东省卫生健康委员会
3.
潍坊医学院管理学院

基金项目:

山东省自然科学基金 ZR2019MG010

国家自然科学基金 71373182

教育部人文社科基金 15YJCZH065

详细信息

作者简介:
戴萌娜(1992-), 女, 山东青岛人, 在读博士, 主要研究方向为卫生管理与卫生政策研究

通讯作者:
尹文强, E-mail: yinwq1969@126.com

中图分类号: R179 R181.3 R563.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-20
- 修回日期: 2021-06-20
- 网络出版日期: 2021-09-24
- 刊出日期: 2021-09-24

Pneumonia mortality in children aged 0-14 years in China during 2005 to 2019

1.
Public Health College, Weifang Medical University, Weifang(261053), Shandong Province, China

摘要

摘要: 目的了解中国近15年0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡率及变化趋势, 为制定儿童肺炎防治策略提供参考依据。方法利用2005—2019年卫生统计年鉴中的城乡居民死亡数据, 提取城乡0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡率并计算标化死亡率, 利用Joinpoint回归模型拟合死亡率变化趋势。结果城市和农村儿童肺炎死亡粗率均呈增加趋势, 标化死亡率总体呈波动下降趋势。Joinpoint回归显示中国城乡儿童肺炎标化死亡率均为单调下降趋势, 无转折点。城市儿童肺炎标化死亡率总体APC为-3.4, 男童为-3.5, 女童为-3.5, 其中城市儿童总体及城市男童标化死亡率年度变化趋势差异均有统计学意义(P值均 < 0.05)。农村儿童肺炎标化死亡率总体APC为-7.8, 男童为-7.1, 女童为-7.8, 差异均有统计学意义(P值均 < 0.05)。城市和农村儿童组间变化趋势差异无统计学意义。结论 2005—2019年间中国城乡儿童肺炎死亡率总体处于下降趋势, 城乡死亡率变化趋势较平衡。今后还需持续加强对儿童肺炎的干预措施, 降低儿童肺炎死亡率。
- 肺炎 /
- 死亡率 /
- 流行病学研究 /
- 儿童
Abstract: Objective To understand pneumonia mortality in children aged 0-14 years in China in recent 15 years, and to provide reference for child pneumonia prevention and treatment. Methods Based on the death data from China Statistical Yearbook 2005-2019, pneumonia mortality in urban and rural children aged 0-14 was extracted and the standardized mortality was calculated, and the trend of mortality was fitted by Joinpoint regression model. Results The crude mortality rate of child pneumonia in urban and rural areas showed an increasing trend, while the standardized mortality rate showed a fluctuating downward trend. Joinpoint regression showed that the mortality rate of pneumonia in urban and rural children showed a monotonous downward trend, and there was no turning point. The overall APC of pneumonia mortality of urban children was -3.4, that of boys and girls were both -3.5. Trend for annual changes in urban areas were found significant among total sample and boys (both P < 0.05). The overall APC of pneumonia mortality in rural children was -7.8, that of boys and girls were -7.1 and -7.8, respectively. Trend for annual changes in rural areas were found significant among total sample and boys(both P < 0.05). There was no significant differences in the trend of mortality between urban and rural groups. Conclusion During 2005 to 2019, child pneumonia mortality in urban and rural areas in China shows a downward trend, which is relatively balanced in urban and rural areas. Further strengthened pediatric pneumonia treatment and management are expected to reduce the pneumonia mortality.
- Pneumonia /
- Mortality /
- Epidemiologic studies /
- Child

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图 1 中国2005—2019年0~14岁城乡儿童肺炎年龄别标化死亡率Joinpoint回归

Figure 1. Joinpoint regression analysis of age standardized mortality of pneumonia in urban and rural children aged 0-14 years from 2005 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 中国城市2005—2019年0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡率及其年龄别标化率/10^-5

Table 1. Mortality and age standardized mortality of pneumonia in urban children aged 0-14 from 2005 to 2019/10^-5

年份	男童		女童		合计
年份	粗率	标化率	粗率	标化率	粗率	标化率
2019	17.08	1.84	13.09	1.60	15.11	1.73
2018	16.79	1.51	13.35	1.24	15.09	1.38
2017	15.92	2.19	13.09	1.63	14.53	1.93
2016	15.47	2.69	12.42	1.85	13.96	2.31
2015	15.19	3.03	12.82	2.50	14.02	2.78
2014	16.34	4.08	13.11	2.76	14.75	3.47
2013	17.03	3.44	13.08	2.69	15.08	3.09
2012	17.46	3.05	13.58	2.35	15.54	2.72
2011	18.84	2.66	14.68	2.58	16.78	2.62
2010	17.75	3.63	13.95	2.67	15.88	3.17
2009	13.91	2.45	11.29	1.87	12.61	2.18
2008	12.85	3.00	10.93	2.48	11.90	2.75
2007	11.89	3.76	10.30	3.76	11.11	3.76
2006	9.77	4.66	8.29	3.27	9.04	3.99
2005	5.93	2.16	5.96	1.53	5.95	1.85

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 中国农村2005—2019年0~14岁儿童肺炎死亡率及其年龄别标化率/10^-5

Table 2. Mortality and age standardized mortality of pneumonia in rural children aged 0-14 from 2005 to 2019/10^-5

年份	男童		女童		合计
年份	粗率	标化率	粗率	标化率	粗率	标化率
2019	10.33	2.28	8.89	1.66	9.62	1.98
2018	10.27	2.40	9.24	2.36	9.77	2.38
2017	9.80	2.61	8.83	2.19	9.32	2.42
2016	9.51	3.71	8.96	2.70	13.96	2.48
2015	9.19	3.98	8.60	3.41	8.90	3.62
2014	10.08	4.54	9.33	3.89	9.71	4.24
2013	9.36	4.89	8.61	4.31	8.99	4.63
2012	10.55	5.79	10.22	4.29	10.39	5.09
2011	8.50	4.69	9.04	4.17	8.77	4.45
2010	8.32	8.43	8.96	6.37	8.64	7.46
2009	9.66	4.32	9.97	2.97	9.81	3.69
2008	6.19	4.96	7.04	3.63	6.61	4.35
2007	7.41	6.18	7.58	5.18	7.50	5.70
2006	6.67	5.49	7.64	4.87	7.14	5.20
2005	6.32	7.85	8.08	9.59	7.12	8.61

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